College Football · resolved market
Will Texas beat Michigan?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd3c8453567bbfc67b2153ea7cd2db63f488c5446fbd6027b33975d98268b9b3a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Texasof Texas, Michigan
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,539
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,967
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,539 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe0f3…d82cbacked Texas | 71c | 11,816$8,378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,437.96 | 48 | 68.8%33 W · 15 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a14…0762backed Michigan | 29c | 8,915$2,559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,558.84 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c8…44fbbacked Michigan | 30c | 6,287$1,886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,886.1 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Michigan | 6c | 3,710$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.64 | 242 | 29.3%71 W · 171 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3102…406abacked Texas | 70c | 2,649$1,855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$794.79 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe41a…a42dbacked Texas | 73c | 1,033$754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.91 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa805…83dcbacked Michigan | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 102 | 20.6%21 W · 81 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa672…095fbacked Texas | 73c | 943.64$686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.78 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1856…1964backed Michigan | 7c | 789.58$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.27 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Texas | 64c | 593.88$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.61 | 152 | 52.6%80 W · 72 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6f…25f0backed Texas | 77c | 576.05$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.09 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.1wins | +0.29per pick | 53cpaid | +988.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Michigan | 31c | 519.87$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.16 | 157 | 51%80 W · 77 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe932…0f05backed Michigan | 11c | 508$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.64 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -4.3wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb67…970abacked Texas | 77c | 491.33$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.33 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7a…3746backed Texas | 70c | 485.71$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4254…e52fbacked Texas | 75c | 466.24$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.9 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…e696backed Michigan | 3c | 400$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30ed…7b02backed Michigan | 26c | 381.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x660f…ec30backed Texas | 73c | 300$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…d337backed Michigan | 27c | 273.41$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.82 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa03b…c3f1backed Texas | 72c | 263.65$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.41 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed Texas | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Michigan | 24c | 197.98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.83 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1180…8e39backed Texas | 74c | 195$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.45 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…d38ebacked Michigan | 28c | 180$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec96…b987backed Michigan | 24c | 173$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.32 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d7b…d15ebacked Michigan | 23c | 150.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e1…0b47backed Texas | 70c | 150$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2b…8fa0backed Texas | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.21per pick | 60cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x58bc…a883backed Texas | 73c | 132.88$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.88 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4975…c492backed Texas | 71c | 131.73$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.2 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb27d…fc9cbacked Michigan | 42c | 120$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Michigan | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbb…a8fbbacked Texas | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…466ebacked Michigan | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5697…cddfbacked Texas | 76c | 96.05$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.05 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…1de4backed Michigan | 13c | 95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 52 | 9.6%5 W · 47 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb956…c475backed Michigan | 30c | 83.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -4.1wins | -0.34per pick | 43cpaid | -83%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb1…d3e3backed Michigan | 29c | 82.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +8.2wins | +0.14per pick | 35cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked Texas | 71c | 82.76$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d56…d62ebacked Michigan | 32c | 78.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Texas | 69c | 73.09$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.94 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -6.4wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x08e2…e186backed Texas | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa6…db6abacked Texas | 58c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe05d…aea2backed Texas | 70c | 55$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2c…3ce8backed Michigan | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57fd…b1cfbacked Texas | 71c | 52.11$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Michigan | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed Texas | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +4.6wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbb33…5924backed Michigan | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Michigan | 28c | 48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1237…de46backed Michigan | 28c | 44.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c5…f001backed Texas | 77c | 38.04$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeea7…c4d0backed Texas | 74c | 33.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.26per pick | 63cpaid | +41%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Texas | 74c | 33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d97…d431backed Texas | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa58…030bbacked Texas | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +53%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed6…58b9backed Texas | 70c | 15.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +26%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Texas beat Michigan?this page
- Will Texas win by 8 or more points?Yes won
- Will there be 42 or more combined points scored?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.