Valorant · resolved market
Valorant: M80 vs Nightblood Gaming (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd3f435505448e9b7f79c29dd2f7af53935a3c339b0b59b0e909e54ad504fb8f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- M80of M80, Nightblood Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,485
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,959
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,485 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2276…efd0backed M80 | 74c | 6,732$4,968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,763.93 | 31 | 77.4%24 W · 7 L | +5.0wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcf60…a6f5backed M80 | 74c | 3,162$2,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$822.21 | 524 | 55.2%289 W · 235 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e38…2a58backed M80 | 75c | 2,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 42 | 73.8%31 W · 11 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x920a…29e0backed Nightblood Gaming | 26c | 1,666$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.22 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6922…5d9cbacked Nightblood Gaming | 26c | 1,122$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0e…bd73backed Nightblood Gaming | 25c | 1,012$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.6wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b55…d74bbacked M80 | 72c | 999.98$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.99 | 867 | 47.5%412 W · 455 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x568d…87d0backed Nightblood Gaming | 25c | 993.14$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.29 | 108 | 42.6%46 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1aa…bf0fbacked Nightblood Gaming | 26c | 924.11$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.27 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0f…d336backed Nightblood Gaming | 26c | 807.69$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f2…a80dbacked M80 | 75c | 773.41$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.35 | 66 | 68.2%45 W · 21 L | +5.7wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b80…e5dfbacked Nightblood Gaming | 26c | 769.23$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9015…281fbacked Nightblood Gaming | 25c | 733$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.25 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -29%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1311…d450backed Nightblood Gaming | 25c | 717.75$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.44 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | +5.5wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa573…3987backed Nightblood Gaming | 25c | 697$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.25 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf21d…2e9abacked M80 | 73c | 590.87$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.7 | 268 | 58.6%157 W · 111 L | +18.3wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe564…221abacked Nightblood Gaming | 24c | 568.84$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Nightblood Gaming | 12c | 561.65$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.74 | 513 | 44.6%229 W · 284 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked M80 | 76c | 537$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.63 | 544 | 39.9%217 W · 327 L | +12.7wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x459f…c1f5backed Nightblood Gaming | 26c | 500$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1cb…2345backed Nightblood Gaming | 27c | 453$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.31 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +5.4wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd677…7579backed Nightblood Gaming | 28c | 407$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.96 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Nightblood Gaming | 15c | 401.32$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.92 | 465 | 26.7%124 W · 341 L | -25.8wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03c5…5f61backed Nightblood Gaming | 26c | 356.04$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.57 | 64 | 28.1%18 W · 46 L | -6.9wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -32%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd02a…4771backed Nightblood Gaming | 26c | 346.15$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe8…bb28backed Nightblood Gaming | 26c | 343.46$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.3 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…c7a6backed Nightblood Gaming | 28c | 334.78$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.74 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -5.5wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Nightblood Gaming | 25c | 316.89$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.17 | 751 | 42.7%321 W · 430 L | -27.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Nightblood Gaming | 26c | 299.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 344 | 43.3%149 W · 195 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaeb…9ec2backed Nightblood Gaming | 26c | 287.4$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.72 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Nightblood Gaming | 25c | 278.12$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.75 | 322 | 41.9%135 W · 187 L | -15.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed M80 | 76c | 269.97$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.44 | 1,495 | 46.6%696 W · 799 L | -17.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d5…8a03backed M80 | 75c | 266.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed M80 | 79c | 256.46$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 494 | 55.3%273 W · 221 L | +23.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Nightblood Gaming | 22c | 253.85$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.07 | 444 | 41.9%186 W · 258 L | -22.8wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50e8…0105backed Nightblood Gaming | 27c | 246.58$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.17 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked M80 | 73c | 244.46$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 289 | 42.9%124 W · 165 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f85…e91abacked Nightblood Gaming | 26c | 231.11$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 130 | 43.8%57 W · 73 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked Nightblood Gaming | 24c | 230.73$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.22 | 236 | 44.5%105 W · 131 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd93b…cd48backed Nightblood Gaming | 26c | 206$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.56 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -7.1wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9b16…9f80backed M80 | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 184 | 60.9%112 W · 72 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked M80 | 79c | 182.74$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.78 | 1,312 | 43.8%575 W · 737 L | -44.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked M80 | 80c | 178.65$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.73 | 1,422 | 51.3%729 W · 693 L | +49.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17cd…7423backed Nightblood Gaming | 27c | 173.22$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.77 | 121 | 38.8%47 W · 74 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Nightblood Gaming | 24c | 167.77$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.95 | 783 | 44.1%345 W · 438 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked M80 | 79c | 167.73$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.9 | 1,612 | 45.1%727 W · 885 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1967…30b5backed Nightblood Gaming | 27c | 161.35$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.55 | 134 | 46.3%62 W · 72 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed Nightblood Gaming | 25c | 146.67$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.67 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76af…25c3backed Nightblood Gaming | 25c | 146$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Nightblood Gaming | 14c | 141.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 779 | 29.5%230 W · 549 L | -72.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -39%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xef20…8f64backed Nightblood Gaming | 26c | 140$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1065…6218backed Nightblood Gaming | 28c | 140$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 177 | 40.1%71 W · 106 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Nightblood Gaming | 25c | 138.93$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.88 | 705 | 43.5%307 W · 398 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Nightblood Gaming | 19c | 137$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.69 | 237 | 32.9%78 W · 159 L | -20.7wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe187…a69cbacked M80 | 75c | 132$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x257e…ca61backed Nightblood Gaming | 15c | 131.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 223 | 44.4%99 W · 124 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaca…4e2dbacked Nightblood Gaming | 28c | 116.07$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d3…271dbacked Nightblood Gaming | 26c | 102.69$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed Nightblood Gaming | 17c | 88.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd6…02e8backed Nightblood Gaming | 28c | 86.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.5wins | -0.32per pick | 50cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x00d2…fe64backed M80 | 75c | 64$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 202 | 48.5%98 W · 104 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Nightblood Gaming | 23c | 61.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 575 | 50.6%291 W · 284 L | +14.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42dd…5d2bbacked Nightblood Gaming | 27c | 60.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad2c…4eecbacked M80 | 73c | 59.23$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 205 | 53.2%109 W · 96 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5430…fbbbbacked M80 | 73c | 58.9$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 117 | 54.7%64 W · 53 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Nightblood Gaming | 26c | 55.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 116 | 37.9%44 W · 72 L | -15.5wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xade6…c465backed Nightblood Gaming | 21c | 54.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 653 | 47.3%309 W · 344 L | -18.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Nightblood Gaming | 27c | 47.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 164 | 51.8%85 W · 79 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd6…d4a0backed Nightblood Gaming | 28c | 45.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked M80 | 72c | 41.68$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 181 | 48.6%88 W · 93 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Nightblood Gaming | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 101 | 42.6%43 W · 58 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c60…01febacked M80 | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | +5.7wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed M80 | 75c | 29.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 155 | 60.6%94 W · 61 L | +14.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x31b9…9c86backed M80 | 69c | 29.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x113f…ae4dbacked M80 | 80c | 17.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -4.5wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked M80 | 77c | 15.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 219 | 51.6%113 W · 106 L | -16.1wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x69fa…e259backed M80 | 76c | 14.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.48 | 85 | 54.1%46 W · 39 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Valorant: M80 vs Nightblood Gaming (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Playoffsthis page
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- Map Handicap: M80 (-1.5) vs Nightblood Gaming (+1.5)M80 won
- Valorant: M80 vs Nightblood Gaming - Map 1 WinnerM80 won
- Valorant: M80 vs Nightblood Gaming - Map 2 WinnerM80 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.