NHL · resolved market
Spread: Sabres (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd464ac495334e10adf540081ff241fe24ea08590af7ec2bd2f2b6293dc899481
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Red Wingsof Sabres, Red Wings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,386
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,746
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,386 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Red Wings | 64c | 8,664$5,545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,118.87 | 243 | 49.8%121 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5919…95acbacked Sabres | 36c | 7,996$2,874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,874.08 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff9…a78bbacked Sabres | 36c | 1,469$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.74 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Red Wings | 64c | 999.99$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Sabres | 35c | 732.46$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.86 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Sabres | 36c | 361.11$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 403 | 40.9%165 W · 238 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Red Wings | 66c | 302$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.68 | 1,434 | 50.8%728 W · 706 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Sabres | 34c | 292.63$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.42 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf90…8e17backed Red Wings | 64c | 233.99$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.24 | 339 | 41.3%140 W · 199 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff5…f136backed Red Wings | 65c | 230.77$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.77 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Red Wings | 67c | 223.88$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.88 | 287 | 53.3%153 W · 134 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e70…14babacked Sabres | 33c | 192.07$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.38 | 100 | 49%49 W · 51 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Sabres | 34c | 144.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.94 | 381 | 47.2%180 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0204…0e31backed Red Wings | 65c | 131.09$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.09 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Red Wings | 77c | 129.96$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.95 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Red Wings | 65c | 123.08$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.08 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1769…94efbacked Sabres | 34c | 120$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 349 | 49.9%174 W · 175 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x743a…ddcdbacked Sabres | 15c | 100.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.19per pick | 46cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c08…af98backed Sabres | 36c | 97.22$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 337 | 56.4%190 W · 147 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67be…8a3bbacked Sabres | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedf1…5776backed Red Wings | 65c | 84.62$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.62 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Red Wings | 65c | 78.46$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.46 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Sabres | 35c | 75.34$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.37 | 154 | 44.8%69 W · 85 L | -11.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Sabres | 23c | 74.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 303 | 48.8%148 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9348…8cfbbacked Sabres | 36c | 69.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 115 | 57.4%66 W · 49 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Sabres | 34c | 59.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…6bd3backed Sabres | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 540 | 49.4%267 W · 273 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Red Wings | 65c | 53.85$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Sabres | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Sabres | 35c | 44.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 456 | 51.5%235 W · 221 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Sabres | 35c | 39.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Red Wings | 63c | 39.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Red Wings | 65c | 34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 230 | 63%145 W · 85 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Red Wings | 66c | 31.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Red Wings | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 227 | 63.4%144 W · 83 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Red Wings | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Sabres | 36c | 29.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 235 | 59.1%139 W · 96 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Red Wings | 65c | 24.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 336 | 60.7%204 W · 132 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Red Wings | 66c | 21.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 365 | 61.9%226 W · 139 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Red Wings | 65c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 222 | 55.9%124 W · 98 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Sabres (-1.5)this page
- Red Wings vs. SabresRed Wings won
- Red Wings vs. Sabres: O/U 4.5Over won
- Red Wings vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5Over won
- Red Wings vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5Over won
- Red Wings vs. Sabres: O/U 7.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.