NHL · resolved market
Red Wings vs. Sabres: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb39bca44060f5c7d882ae71032fe7d9d786f4744d312be5545e9527a07e00b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,119
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,992
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,119 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 35c | 447.69$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.26 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c08…af98backed Under | 76c | 394.74$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.74 | 337 | 56.4%190 W · 147 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.98 | 254 | 49.6%126 W · 128 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…6112backed Over | 26c | 316.52$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.3 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -43%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0593…ee3abacked Over | 27c | 260.09$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.03 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Under | 63c | 253.94$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.64 | 303 | 48.8%148 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 24c | 246.3$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.95 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Over | 39c | 234.83$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.63 | 413 | 40%165 W · 248 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf90…8e17backed Over | 24c | 228.58$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.16 | 339 | 41.3%140 W · 199 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 59c | 199.96$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.55 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 80c | 162.64$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.53 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 67c | 115.79$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.39 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Over | 24c | 102.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa380…a620backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 45c | 72.6$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.67 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 33c | 71.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dbf…8f08backed Over | 26c | 58.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 41c | 57.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 498 | 51%254 W · 244 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Under | 64c | 52$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 70 | 54.3%38 W · 32 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 80c | 39.14$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e46…4316backed Under | 75c | 39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Under | 76c | 37.1$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 79c | 34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 65c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 276 | 59.4%164 W · 112 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Under | 74c | 31.16$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bb…049fbacked Under | 63c | 24.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 149 | 63.8%95 W · 54 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 80c | 22.55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 378 | 57.4%217 W · 161 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Under | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 820 | 43%353 W · 467 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13e5…1ea5backed Under | 59c | 19.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 211 | 58.8%124 W · 87 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Under | 73c | 19.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 355 | 53%188 W · 167 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b95…07e5backed Under | 56c | 17.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Under | 71c | 15.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Under | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 153 | 68%104 W · 49 L | +11.6wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Red Wings vs. Sabres: O/U 7.5this page
- Red Wings vs. SabresRed Wings won
- Red Wings vs. Sabres: O/U 4.5Over won
- Red Wings vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5Over won
- Red Wings vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Sabres (-1.5)Red Wings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.