NHL · resolved market
Red Wings vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf4e21dc6e57b41157d28a535df5e354cc83f74dd76c6d19dcc860d5806f5525
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,602
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,921
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,602 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 42c | 2,059$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870.2 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc947…3462backed Over | 58c | 965.88$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.88 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Under | 30c | 693.12$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.05 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24bc…1b77backed Over | 57c | 525.35$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.35 | 122 | 58.2%71 W · 51 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 41c | 469.31$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.86 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf90…8e17backed Under | 42c | 463$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.46 | 339 | 41.3%140 W · 199 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a35…5e52backed Over | 59c | 423.73$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.73 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x039c…b202backed Under | 41c | 421.55$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.84 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd871…6bbabacked Over | 49c | 400$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 50c | 387.27$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.13 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e1…e25abacked Over | 57c | 324.82$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.67 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 41c | 281.02$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b8…437cbacked Over | 60c | 251.67$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.67 | 106 | 50.9%54 W · 52 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 41c | 249$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.19 | 538 | 49.4%266 W · 272 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Under | 34c | 223.42$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.7 | 303 | 48.8%148 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 73c | 197.6$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.68 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Over | 58c | 181.41$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.91 | 378 | 57.4%217 W · 161 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Under | 41c | 173$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.93 | 253 | 37.9%96 W · 157 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Under | 41c | 173$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.93 | 183 | 44.8%82 W · 101 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x241e…04cbbacked Over | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 62 | 71%44 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 41c | 146.34$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 57c | 140$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.2 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d54…a756backed Over | 57c | 131.58$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.58 | 150 | 54%81 W · 69 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Over | 57c | 122.81$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.81 | 254 | 49.6%126 W · 128 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 41c | 103.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.64 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 42c | 74$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa2…b8e3backed Under | 36c | 70.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe725…2b00backed Under | 46c | 67.05$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.84 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70f9…f25bbacked Under | 28c | 66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 72c | 55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Under | 43c | 53.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 456 | 51.5%235 W · 221 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 42c | 51.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 594 | 50.8%302 W · 292 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Under | 51c | 50.82$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 71c | 50.24$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 498 | 51%254 W · 244 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Under | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Over | 64c | 48.07$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.32 | 145 | 51%74 W · 71 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Over | 59c | 47.61$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5919…95acbacked Over | 57c | 43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 34c | 40.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Over | 72c | 40.41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 249 | 46.2%115 W · 134 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Over | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 427 | 50.8%217 W · 210 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc313…6645backed Over | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5676…7da7backed Under | 58c | 30.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Over | 53c | 28.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bb…049fbacked Over | 67c | 26.39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 149 | 63.8%95 W · 54 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Under | 43c | 24.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 565 | 53.6%303 W · 262 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 78c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Over | 54c | 22.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 215 | 49.3%106 W · 109 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…4fcabacked Over | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 227 | 59.5%135 W · 92 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Red Wings vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5this page
- Red Wings vs. SabresRed Wings won
- Red Wings vs. Sabres: O/U 4.5Over won
- Red Wings vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5Over won
- Red Wings vs. Sabres: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Sabres (-1.5)Red Wings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.