Brentford FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 2.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd48e9f16d52fa9edfef57dc65b482db6c08bebbe7bd703cd2e7afa7f76f90660

Rebuilt 41 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Jan 25, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $45,486
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $46,774

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,486 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Premier League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over	50c	11,999$5,999 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,999.34	506	44.3%224 W · 282 L	-14.0wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Over	51c	11,003$5,610 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,609.99	1,006	46.6%469 W · 537 L	-20.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	52c	8,929$4,620 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,308.89	6,117	45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L	-28.6wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Under	51c	7,129$3,670 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,459.39	2,661	45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L	-11.1wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under	52c	6,534$3,398 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,135.46	4,744	41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L	+28.2wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked Under	50c	6,000$3,010 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,990	386	49%189 W · 197 L	-6.9wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1f3…d99cbacked Under	51c	3,137$1,600 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,537.25	59	47.5%28 W · 31 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf07c…9a72backed Over	12c	2,725$320 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$319.67	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.15per pick	49cpaid	-56%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33a7…960dbacked Over	45c	1,065$479 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$479.25	239	26.4%63 W · 176 L	-10.5wins	-0.04per pick	31cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb0b…3790backed Under	70c	1,003$702 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$301.04	65	20%13 W · 52 L	+5.8wins	+0.09per pick	11cpaid	+165.6%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Over	34c	866.67$291 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$290.76	117	27.4%32 W · 85 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Over	55c	804.62$440 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$439.67	457	51.2%234 W · 223 L	+21.3wins	+0.05per pick	47cpaid	+10.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8e5a…154cbacked Over	34c	788.83$272 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$271.94	95	50.5%48 W · 47 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6d1…62eabacked Under	50c	600$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$300	44	45.5%20 W · 24 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-3%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under	50c	596.77$296 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$301.17	2,550	47.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L	+45.2wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Over	55c	553$304 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$304.34	432	41.9%181 W · 251 L	-5.6wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Over	50c	500$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	65	40%26 W · 39 L	-3.5wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8dee…412bbacked Over	47c	500$235 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$235	126	39.7%50 W · 76 L	-4.7wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb21c…3aedbacked Over	49c	499.99$245 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$245	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.10per pick	57cpaid	+13%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c7…3fa6backed Over	50c	498.24$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-1.4wins	-0.18per pick	43cpaid	-56.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa266…67f7backed Over	49c	408.16$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	198	26.3%52 W · 146 L	-14.0wins	-0.07per pick	33cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa6ac…c69bbacked Over	49c	408.16$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-0.9wins	-0.11per pick	44cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under	49c	400$196 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$204	524	54.2%284 W · 240 L	+14.4wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5773…ac11backed Under	49c	400$196 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$204	399	48.4%193 W · 206 L	+9.1wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf0e…3197backed Over	51c	392.16$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	300	59.7%179 W · 121 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	60cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2496…50a5backed Over	31c	322.74$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	56	46.4%26 W · 30 L	+3.3wins	+0.06per pick	41cpaid	+7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4417…01eebacked Over	48c	225$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108	111	42.3%47 W · 64 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f03…766dbacked Over	50c	212.88$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.44	27	66.7%18 W · 9 L	+6.0wins	+0.22per pick	44cpaid	+64.9%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0x9db0…0f6abacked Over	49c	200$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98	157	40.8%64 W · 93 L	-4.8wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x03dc…132abacked Over	49c	200$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98	71	29.6%21 W · 50 L	-12.8wins	-0.18per pick	48cpaid	-38.9%equal weight	35-0.13 edge/pick
0x8031…67e0backed Over	33c	200$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-1.2wins	-0.14per pick	47cpaid	-34.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xade1…0493backed Over	45c	200$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-1.1wins	-0.12per pick	45cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f19…ec51backed Under	37c	200$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$125.07	25	68%17 W · 8 L	+4.1wins	+0.16per pick	52cpaid	+36.7%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd816…84b9backed Over	49c	182.86$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.6	38	42.1%16 W · 22 L	-2.3wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfee4…d386backed Under	50c	132.48$66 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66.24	337	53.1%179 W · 158 L	+6.6wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Over	50c	121.21$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.61	277	48.7%135 W · 142 L	+5.9wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb85e…e18dbacked Over	43c	117.63$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.58	60	36.7%22 W · 38 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b08…8f40backed Under	51c	114.22$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.25	16	50%8 W · 8 L	-1.6wins	-0.10per pick	60cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9271…a28abacked Over	51c	114$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.14	22	40.9%9 W · 13 L	-1.4wins	-0.06per pick	47cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x33af…288abacked Over	19c	105.26$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	203	36.9%75 W · 128 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under	57c	100.99$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.07	1,272	50.4%641 W · 631 L	-53.9wins	-0.04per pick	55cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe1d…219ebacked Over	50c	100.6$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	81	61.7%50 W · 31 L	+6.2wins	+0.08per pick	54cpaid	+13.3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3592…c81abacked Over	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+0.8wins	+0.10per pick	52cpaid	+14%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6827…26fdbacked Over	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-1.4wins	-0.14per pick	54cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5339…9da3backed Over	55c	94.43$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.94	240	62.5%150 W · 90 L	+4.4wins	+0.02per pick	61cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf38c…d9f2backed Over	49c	90.2$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.2	177	45.2%80 W · 97 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x63f4…83a0backed Over	50c	87.84$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.22	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-1.9wins	-0.31per pick	48cpaid	-71.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb166…3105backed Over	49c	69.96$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.28	184	49.5%91 W · 93 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb182…ab4abacked Under	72c	69.44$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.44	32	65.6%21 W · 11 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	63cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over	57c	50.96$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	556	54.9%305 W · 251 L	+8.0wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b79…6a80backed Under	73c	50$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.59	15	66.7%10 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	68cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4c16…630fbacked Over	55c	50$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.5	33	30.3%10 W · 23 L	-7.3wins	-0.22per pick	52cpaid	-41%equal weight	36-0.13 edge/pick
0x9075…cfe8backed Over	50c	50$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	255	50.2%128 W · 127 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ee1…e2bbbacked Over	51c	49.02$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	237	41.8%99 W · 138 L	-7.6wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac98…7281backed Over	51c	49$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.99	146	36.3%53 W · 93 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xae23…1bc4backed Over	50c	43.06$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.53	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+0.9wins	+0.11per pick	51cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe12…93aebacked Under	52c	42.31$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.31	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbab6…f845backed Under	50c	41.71$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.65	21	52.4%11 W · 10 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x04b3…ad8dbacked Over	51c	39.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	68	54.4%37 W · 31 L	+4.2wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9f7e…c230backed Over	51c	39.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	57	42.1%24 W · 33 L	-2.3wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe900…7937backed Over	50c	38.64$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.32	26	61.5%16 W · 10 L	+2.0wins	+0.08per pick	54cpaid	+12.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1da4…e65cbacked Under	52c	38.56$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.56	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed Under	51c	38.18$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.71	56	58.9%33 W · 23 L	+5.0wins	+0.09per pick	50cpaid	+14%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xef41…2473backed Over	50c	37.28$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.64	90	37.8%34 W · 56 L	-6.2wins	-0.07per pick	45cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x392c…0bb4backed Over	33c	36.36$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	31	32.3%10 W · 21 L	-3.4wins	-0.11per pick	43cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3880…ab7dbacked Over	75c	33.33$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	286	54.2%155 W · 131 L	-11.3wins	-0.04per pick	58cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfcb5…9bf1backed Under	51c	30.61$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15	373	42.6%159 W · 214 L	-7.3wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ea6…00f2backed Over	49c	30.61$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	27	55.6%15 W · 12 L	+2.9wins	+0.11per pick	45cpaid	+27.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa55f…ce65backed Over	45c	28$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.67	37	40.5%15 W · 22 L	-3.3wins	-0.09per pick	49cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd524…0f5abacked Under	51c	25.55$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.52	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	65cpaid	+16.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2e9a…becbbacked Under	51c	23.96$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.74	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+1.0wins	+0.25per pick	50cpaid	+53.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b4c…77bdbacked Over	49c	20.82$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-2.5wins	-0.41per pick	41cpaid	-100%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2142…e744backed Over	51c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	+24.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd243…2dcfbacked Over	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	51	45.1%23 W · 28 L	-4.4wins	-0.09per pick	54cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf7d2…f555backed Under	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	182	60.4%110 W · 72 L	-4.4wins	-0.02per pick	63cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf07…4a12backed Over	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	135	31.1%42 W · 93 L	-12.3wins	-0.09per pick	40cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7a3c…4b61backed Under	60c	20$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8	53	39.6%21 W · 32 L	-3.9wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x31ed…09dabacked Over	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	54	51.9%28 W · 26 L	-2.7wins	-0.05per pick	57cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd573…f99ebacked Over	50c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	10	50%5 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under	52c	19.63$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.4	2,212	49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L	-9.3wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Brentford FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 2.5this page
Brentford FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
Brentford FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 1.5Over won
Brentford FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 3.5Under won
Brentford FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Spread: Brentford FC (-1.5)Nottingham Forest FC won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Brentford FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 2.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event