Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd48f79951c9127f286edbd29e173d2ac62b326b7de07621d1cef093a5360ad47

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Sunderland AFCof Liverpool FC, Sunderland AFC
Resolved: Feb 11, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $28,215
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $28,755

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,215 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Premier League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Sunderland AFC	72c	6,567$4,759 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,807.67	6,217	45.6%2,834 W · 3,383 L	-33.0wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabb8…bba3backed Sunderland AFC	71c	5,000$3,550 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,450	24	41.7%10 W · 14 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33a7…960dbacked Liverpool FC	25c	4,000$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	239	26.4%63 W · 176 L	-10.5wins	-0.04per pick	31cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd146…9bf0backed Liverpool FC	30c	2,000$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	462	36.1%167 W · 295 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	35cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Liverpool FC	30c	1,500$450 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$450	607	28%170 W · 437 L	+2.7wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc274…6d59backed Liverpool FC	36c	1,401$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	61	44.3%27 W · 34 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Liverpool FC	25c	1,248$309 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$309.33	120	20.8%25 W · 95 L	-9.0wins	-0.07per pick	28cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Sunderland AFC	72c	1,228$887 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$341.31	4,874	41.5%2,021 W · 2,853 L	+25.2wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef21…3dc9backed Liverpool FC	30c	1,148$344 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$344.28	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+1.9wins	+0.24per pick	39cpaid	+43%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x88ea…f0d2backed Liverpool FC	25c	1,037$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260	31	25.8%8 W · 23 L	-1.5wins	-0.05per pick	31cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed Liverpool FC	30c	972.83$292 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$291.85	413	53.8%222 W · 191 L	+13.2wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+8.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Sunderland AFC	70c	961$673 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$288.3	124	54.8%68 W · 56 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Sunderland AFC	70c	936$655 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$280.8	722	49.9%360 W · 362 L	+5.4wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d7f…1162backed Liverpool FC	31c	838.71$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.12per pick	45cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0180…b8cdbacked Liverpool FC	25c	526.88$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.79	89	27%24 W · 65 L	-11.9wins	-0.13per pick	40cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	38-0.10 edge/pick
0x0775…eca8backed Liverpool FC	31c	484.87$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	174	28.2%49 W · 125 L	-11.3wins	-0.06per pick	35cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9030…4a23backed Sunderland AFC	71c	422.54$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$122.54	45	53.3%24 W · 21 L	-1.6wins	-0.04per pick	57cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Liverpool FC	29c	388.96$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.26	2,661	45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L	-11.1wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Sunderland AFC	70c	379.17$265 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$114.21	2,606	47.7%1,242 W · 1,364 L	+43.6wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Liverpool FC	29c	300$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87	524	54.2%284 W · 240 L	+14.4wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc2a…d0a4backed Sunderland AFC	72c	265.67$190 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75.64	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	-2.1wins	-0.16per pick	47cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Sunderland AFC	67c	249.98$167 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$82.49	760	50%380 W · 380 L	+20.3wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfcb5…9bf1backed Liverpool FC	33c	249.98$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.49	373	42.6%159 W · 214 L	-7.3wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e48…6fd3backed Liverpool FC	31c	228.99$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.15	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	-1.0wins	-0.07per pick	40cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc8b…d3d6backed Liverpool FC	30c	192.19$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.71	91	37.4%34 W · 57 L	-7.7wins	-0.08per pick	46cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x93c8…adffbacked Liverpool FC	32c	184.38$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ccc…dbcdbacked Liverpool FC	20c	177.59$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.59	101	24.8%25 W · 76 L	-12.0wins	-0.12per pick	37cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x000a…bb3fbacked Sunderland AFC	76c	167.06$128 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.44	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.14per pick	47cpaid	-56.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Liverpool FC	27c	165.84$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.17	1,943	42.5%826 W · 1,117 L	-41.0wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2eae…a25fbacked Liverpool FC	31c	161.29$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	360	36.1%130 W · 230 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	35cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e52…9078backed Liverpool FC	31c	160.78$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	58	37.9%22 W · 36 L	-3.0wins	-0.05per pick	43cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a9b…7303backed Sunderland AFC	70c	142.85$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.86	78	51.3%40 W · 38 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb53…c50bbacked Sunderland AFC	71c	140.85$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.85	67	49.3%33 W · 34 L	+2.2wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd52d…412dbacked Sunderland AFC	67c	131.34$88 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.34	64	32.8%21 W · 43 L	-5.7wins	-0.09per pick	42cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked Sunderland AFC	70c	116.04$81 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.76	194	55.2%107 W · 87 L	+4.8wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f84…67efbacked Liverpool FC	31c	110$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.1	193	29%56 W · 137 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8e1c…a9a5backed Liverpool FC	17c	100$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	99	40.4%40 W · 59 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa936…3b90backed Sunderland AFC	70c	99.99$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30	106	54.7%58 W · 48 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcf83…915dbacked Liverpool FC	31c	94$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.14	34	38.2%13 W · 21 L	+0.9wins	+0.03per pick	36cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb269…6adebacked Liverpool FC	31c	80.65$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	94	36.2%34 W · 60 L	-7.4wins	-0.08per pick	44cpaid	-18%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Liverpool FC	26c	71.22$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.22	515	16.1%83 W · 432 L	-49.9wins	-0.10per pick	26cpaid	-38.6%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x04c0…0927backed Sunderland AFC	72c	69.44$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.44	24	50%12 W · 12 L	-1.1wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f3b…3f0abacked Liverpool FC	30c	69.3$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.79	29	51.7%15 W · 14 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9f4…966fbacked Liverpool FC	31c	65.38$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	40cpaid	-40.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x789c…f493backed Liverpool FC	31c	60.02$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.61	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.8wins	-0.45per pick	45cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7113…dba4backed Liverpool FC	33c	53.48$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.55	410	42%172 W · 238 L	-8.6wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x239b…f8bfbacked Liverpool FC	31c	50$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.5	90	53.3%48 W · 42 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	55cpaid	-7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Liverpool FC	29c	49$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.21	1,707	52.8%902 W · 805 L	+31.6wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Liverpool FC	29c	40.04$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.61	159	52.2%83 W · 76 L	+6.8wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc709…0a40backed Liverpool FC	33c	40$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.2	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	43cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849f…0665backed Sunderland AFC	70c	35.14$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.54	118	50%59 W · 59 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x938b…46c0backed Sunderland AFC	70c	23.49$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.05	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.15per pick	55cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3494…04f4backed Sunderland AFC	70c	22.53$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.76	61	47.5%29 W · 32 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1029…3161backed Sunderland AFC	70c	21.43$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.43	52	50%26 W · 26 L	-3.7wins	-0.07per pick	57cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Sunderland AFC	70c	20.57$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.17	65	44.6%29 W · 36 L	-5.2wins	-0.08per pick	53cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0cb5…6a69backed Sunderland AFC	70c	18$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.4	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-3.0wins	-0.25per pick	58cpaid	-40.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7fda…2b1cbacked Sunderland AFC	70c	17.14$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.14	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	56cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x711a…9240backed Sunderland AFC	67c	16.37$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.37	48	39.6%19 W · 29 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c69…2b8dbacked Sunderland AFC	70c	15.93$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.78	133	60.9%81 W · 52 L	+9.2wins	+0.07per pick	54cpaid	+8.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8fba…9815backed Sunderland AFC	71c	15.11$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.38	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5565…4b3bbacked Sunderland AFC	75c	13.68$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.38	426	58%247 W · 179 L	+24.6wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5)this page
Spread: Liverpool FC (-2.5)Sunderland AFC won
Spread: Sunderland AFC (-1.5)Liverpool FC won
Spread: Sunderland AFC (-2.5)Liverpool FC won
Sunderland AFC vs. Liverpool FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
Sunderland AFC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 1.5Under won
Sunderland AFC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 2.5Under won
Sunderland AFC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 3.5Under won
Sunderland AFC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 4.5Under won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event