TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Mexico City: James Duckworth vs Michael Mmoh

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
James Duckworthof James Duckworth, Michael Mmoh
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$58,457
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$72,044

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,457 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x507e…beaebacked Michael Mmoh14c16,727$2,264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,264.227,01843.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L+124.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Michael Mmoh42c3,126$1,319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,318.5611,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Michael Mmoh34c2,245$754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$754.42,98239.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x93ef…468bbacked James Duckworth54c1,981$1,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$911.1913450%67 W · 67 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+15.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc866…8c6dbacked James Duckworth61c1,635$991 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$644.1827247.4%129 W · 143 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ca…3748backed Michael Mmoh7c1,349$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.4236554.2%198 W · 167 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed James Duckworth59c1,339$792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$547.282,06535.2%727 W · 1,338 L-52.7wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-19.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5887…994ebacked James Duckworth61c1,296$795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500.8319851%101 W · 97 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Michael Mmoh40c1,279$518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$517.536,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe4d3…c2f0backed James Duckworth54c1,270$681 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$589.733556.7%190 W · 145 L-27.7wins-0.08per pick65cpaid-15.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed James Duckworth54c1,100$594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$505.8297745.2%442 W · 535 L-0.9wins0.00per pick45cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f5e…ddaabacked James Duckworth53c1,000$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4702254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Michael Mmoh26c780.21$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.713,07244.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L-30.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b66…336abacked Michael Mmoh46c631.04$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.2826853.7%144 W · 124 L+18.6wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+16.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4248…50febacked Michael Mmoh30c561.65$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.6335436.4%129 W · 225 L-16.8wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed James Duckworth56c495.41$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.668,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51ad…5e56backed James Duckworth63c466.09$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.381,67153%885 W · 786 L+44.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Michael Mmoh46c424.78$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.41,58847%746 W · 842 L-24.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x448d…3adebacked James Duckworth53c391.74$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.0332247.2%152 W · 170 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Michael Mmoh12c374.94$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.414,53367.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L+306.6wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Michael Mmoh5c351.47$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.988,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Michael Mmoh46c316.41$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.557,13949.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L+109.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a8b…88cbbacked James Duckworth56c268.9$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.3210065%65 W · 35 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+7.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Michael Mmoh45c250.77$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.013,90150.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L-13.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac9e…cca3backed Michael Mmoh46c210.35$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.7621856.4%123 W · 95 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc353…fa0bbacked Michael Mmoh45c209.68$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.36540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-27.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaffe…7140backed James Duckworth55c205.3$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.3943242.4%183 W · 249 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Michael Mmoh44c200.01$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.541,43524.3%348 W · 1,087 L-36.2wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-22.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Michael Mmoh42c197.98$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.799,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Michael Mmoh40c181.7$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.236,78648.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L+56.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8ed…8bb4backed James Duckworth57c170.91$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.4910454.8%57 W · 47 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8642…47c8backed Michael Mmoh46c168.28$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.4125250%126 W · 126 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8165…b93dbacked Michael Mmoh46c168.28$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.4111844.9%53 W · 65 L-6.2wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Michael Mmoh47c164.91$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.532,41750.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L+78.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc08…6b85backed Michael Mmoh46c159.49$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.371,10352.9%583 W · 520 L+2.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Michael Mmoh50c156.43$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.491,67850.8%852 W · 826 L+30.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x61c1…0513backed James Duckworth66c148.42$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.461,28760.7%781 W · 506 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa57…a128backed James Duckworth67c146.3$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.2819167%128 W · 63 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick64cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed James Duckworth63c139.75$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.861,13250.3%569 W · 563 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed James Duckworth63c139.63$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.7565952.5%346 W · 313 L+27.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed James Duckworth63c138.62$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.711,17451.9%609 W · 565 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc62e…108dbacked Michael Mmoh46c126.21$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.067834.6%27 W · 51 L-9.4wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-32.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4865…904dbacked James Duckworth80c123.5$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.737071.9%266 W · 104 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick71cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70ac…0c7dbacked James Duckworth58c119.12$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.622,53753.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L+61.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6a3…04bebacked James Duckworth59c117.73$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.3430555.4%169 W · 136 L+0.8wins0.00per pick55cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8098…5646backed James Duckworth59c117.73$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.3476853%407 W · 361 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed James Duckworth59c116.85$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.4485348.7%415 W · 438 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95c5…d5d3backed James Duckworth73c116.07$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.9260158.6%352 W · 249 L+2.6wins0.00per pick58cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked James Duckworth63c108.07$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.1148453.7%260 W · 224 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x687f…5665backed James Duckworth64c106.64$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.36922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-68.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Michael Mmoh48c98.81$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.431,95548%939 W · 1,016 L+16.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa64c…34f2backed James Duckworth55c97.3$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.7933747.2%159 W · 178 L-14.3wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5fea…78b1backed James Duckworth61c96.5$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.5937741.4%156 W · 221 L+9.3wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-7.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6aaa…ddfdbacked James Duckworth54c90.04$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.4227346.5%127 W · 146 L+7.2wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x06e7…3acabacked James Duckworth56c86.29$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.6133557%191 W · 144 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed James Duckworth59c86.06$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.3350156.1%281 W · 220 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd51e…ac0cbacked James Duckworth59c86.06$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.3339955.4%221 W · 178 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed James Duckworth51c85.92$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.674,28840.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L-139.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb5bd…b891backed James Duckworth59c85.17$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.5819153.4%102 W · 89 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-13%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8027…cf81backed Michael Mmoh46c84.14$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.7130853.6%165 W · 143 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe31d…e7a4backed Michael Mmoh46c84.14$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.712748.8%62 W · 65 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb2e3…4874backed James Duckworth75c84$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.0591880.5%739 W · 179 L+39.3wins+0.04per pick76cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8268…8534backed James Duckworth57c78.11$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.594650%23 W · 23 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82de…1337backed James Duckworth57c70.86$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.8241658.7%244 W · 172 L+22.3wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+3.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3c32…7156backed Michael Mmoh42c70.47$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8281255.3%449 W · 363 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbef…0c11backed James Duckworth58c67.23$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.2468157.6%392 W · 289 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed James Duckworth73c66.96$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.364,70349.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L+166.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa4e8…ff03backed James Duckworth61c66.42$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.7629851%152 W · 146 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x231f…254bbacked James Duckworth61c64.68$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.1210160.4%61 W · 40 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick56cpaid-1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa42c…b22ebacked James Duckworth61c64.5$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.9313151.1%67 W · 64 L+0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-16%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Michael Mmoh43c63.41$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.54,76547%2,238 W · 2,527 L-82.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Michael Mmoh46c60.89$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.713,27013.8%450 W · 2,820 L-549.1wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-57.4%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0xf9e4…24c2backed James Duckworth54c52.59$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.426759.6%159 W · 108 L-1.2wins0.00per pick60cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd208…29e6backed James Duckworth56c50.19$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.0823444.9%105 W · 129 L-9.9wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-22.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb76…7ffebacked Michael Mmoh46c48.38$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2596844.4%430 W · 538 L-1.9wins0.00per pick45cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56c4…fce5backed Michael Mmoh45c46$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.781457%464 W · 350 L+19.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb740…2ec1backed James Duckworth53c45.84$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.5435157%200 W · 151 L-13.4wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-6.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb0da…b072backed Michael Mmoh36c45.57$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.392045%9 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-29.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10ff…ff77backed James Duckworth54c44$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.2496755.3%535 W · 432 L+3.4wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d1f…acafbacked James Duckworth56c43.46$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.127345.2%33 W · 40 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed James Duckworth64c41$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.786,72036.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L-95.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7387…ccf1backed Michael Mmoh46c38.7$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.83154.8%17 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x30db…44e1backed James Duckworth56c38.03$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.923758.6%139 W · 98 L+9.6wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb17…32b2backed Michael Mmoh46c37.74$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3620836.5%76 W · 132 L-0.6wins0.00per pick37cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8584…6b7dbacked Michael Mmoh32c36.9$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.818258.5%48 W · 34 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb56b…7150backed James Duckworth53c36.67$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.2416564.8%107 W · 58 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8aa1…6a0dbacked James Duckworth54c36.21$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.762157.1%12 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-13.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ded…68a3backed James Duckworth55c35.47$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.0188560.2%533 W · 352 L-13.6wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfce1…4f4cbacked James Duckworth55c33.01$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.8917656.3%99 W · 77 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa975…42eebacked James Duckworth66c32$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.8157052.6%300 W · 270 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26dd…0249backed Michael Mmoh46c31.68$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5748652.1%253 W · 233 L-1.6wins0.00per pick52cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa85b…eb0ebacked Michael Mmoh46c31.68$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5713151.9%68 W · 63 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bec…c707backed Michael Mmoh45c30.74$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8312861.7%79 W · 49 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed James Duckworth57c29.45$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.84,93441.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L-77.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0642…8c68backed Michael Mmoh48c29.06$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9564358.8%378 W · 265 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fab…708bbacked James Duckworth56c28.37$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.421,27630.4%388 W · 888 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x792a…7364backed James Duckworth52c28.02$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.4510044%44 W · 56 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae1c…91c3backed James Duckworth53c27.5$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.932766.7%18 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick67cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96a0…c637backed James Duckworth53c27.5$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.932673.1%19 W · 7 L+2.6wins+0.10per pick63cpaid+17.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbe02…5fb3backed Michael Mmoh49c25.35$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4932050%160 W · 160 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-14.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.