NHL · resolved market
Spread: Capitals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4cad530e533f40be9c04d01d1fa016343ee7bce4dd7f31ad86490084b9fef33
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Capitalsof Capitals, Ducks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,219
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,335
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,219 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x98f7…b3e4backed Capitals | 33c | 24,188$7,982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,205.87 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Ducks | 67c | 23,831$15,967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,966.77 | 793 | 50.1%397 W · 396 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Ducks | 66c | 6,840$4,542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,542.29 | 619 | 53.8%333 W · 286 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Capitals | 34c | 2,500$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,650 | 849 | 53.8%457 W · 392 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd09…a188backed Capitals | 33c | 2,500$835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,664.98 | 617 | 48.5%299 W · 318 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Capitals | 34c | 1,500$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990 | 360 | 38.6%139 W · 221 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Capitals | 33c | 900$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7104…afefbacked Ducks | 66c | 757.58$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Ducks | 62c | 396.17$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.94 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8861…e19fbacked Capitals | 38c | 368.92$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.92 | 177 | 53.1%94 W · 83 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Capitals | 35c | 257.45$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.41 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa89e…4ab4backed Ducks | 65c | 224.98$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.24 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed Capitals | 73c | 189.61$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.08 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb04…3ce1backed Ducks | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d8…c8c0backed Ducks | 64c | 119$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.16 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Ducks | 64c | 111.11$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.11 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Capitals | 36c | 99.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.99 | 541 | 32.7%177 W · 364 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Capitals | 35c | 99.97$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.98 | 432 | 50.9%220 W · 212 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…5e12backed Ducks | 21c | 90.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.22per pick | 39cpaid | +689.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc49c…6dcabacked Ducks | 64c | 85$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79c3…81e3backed Ducks | 64c | 77.51$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.73 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa7…b707backed Ducks | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Ducks | 31c | 58.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 490 | 45.3%222 W · 268 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacb2…fb9dbacked Capitals | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Capitals | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa891…6c9dbacked Ducks | 65c | 53$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Capitals | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x207b…df20backed Capitals | 35c | 49.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.04 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf572…065abacked Ducks | 65c | 47$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fec…8dc3backed Capitals | 36c | 46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.44 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Ducks | 65c | 44.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Capitals | 30c | 44.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.98 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Ducks | 69c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Ducks | 69c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 629 | 51.2%322 W · 307 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3759…6b3bbacked Capitals | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Capitals | 65c | 39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24a0…1baebacked Ducks | 65c | 38.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5f…3de3backed Ducks | 64c | 38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd289…98b5backed Capitals | 36c | 33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Ducks | 66c | 31.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfac6…cea2backed Ducks | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6591…a0fbbacked Capitals | 35c | 29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Ducks | 64c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…592bbacked Ducks | 65c | 20.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Ducks | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 182 | 62.1%113 W · 69 L | +15.6wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb4…1233backed Ducks | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Ducks | 66c | 16.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Ducks | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 1,054 | 42.5%448 W · 606 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Capitals (-1.5)this page
- Ducks vs. CapitalsCapitals won
- Ducks vs. Capitals: O/U 6.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.