NHL · resolved market
Ducks vs. Capitals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc1eac2c023578550cf4eab0c00086446b90c3f7db312c6c26955e0b5c7007f84
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Capitalsof Ducks, Capitals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $798,930
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $873,021
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $798,930 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 389 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x98f7…b3e4backed Ducks | 11c | 208,375$23,210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,210.08 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc257…358ebacked Ducks | 45c | 106,434$47,895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47,895.22 | 485 | 45.4%220 W · 265 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa07…2125backed Ducks | 44c | 77,849$34,345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34,344.88 | 1,070 | 49.9%534 W · 536 L | +22.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Capitals | 54c | 46,477$25,098 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,379.42 | 485 | 49.7%241 W · 244 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf90e…0b56backed Ducks | 46c | 33,052$15,203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,203.32 | 134 | 49.3%66 W · 68 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Capitals | 55c | 26,852$14,769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,083.47 | 1,891 | 52.4%991 W · 900 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…80aebacked Capitals | 74c | 21,591$15,982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,608.98 | 327 | 44%144 W · 183 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Capitals | 55c | 20,000$11,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,999.99 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Capitals | 55c | 17,500$9,625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,874.99 | 329 | 46.8%154 W · 175 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Capitals | 55c | 11,611$6,386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,224.83 | 283 | 53%150 W · 133 L | +16.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…fed6backed Ducks | 44c | 8,433$3,711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,710.72 | 159 | 53.5%85 W · 74 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab0c…3026backed Capitals | 55c | 8,099$4,454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,645.64 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Capitals | 68c | 7,057$4,817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,240.03 | 1,301 | 52.6%684 W · 617 L | +23.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e33…1482backed Ducks | 8c | 6,775$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Ducks | 45c | 6,500$2,925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,925 | 895 | 47%421 W · 474 L | -18.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Ducks | 45c | 6,461$2,907 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,906.97 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…9401backed Capitals | 57c | 6,389$3,642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,747.47 | 145 | 53.1%77 W · 68 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Ducks | 0c | 6,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,163 | 2.3%27 W · 1,136 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -87.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x936f…d171backed Capitals | 55c | 5,679$3,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,528.57 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | -8.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd8…f306backed Capitals | 55c | 5,000$2,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,250 | 316 | 54.7%173 W · 143 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d76…9168backed Capitals | 55c | 5,000$2,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,250 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Ducks | 45c | 5,000$2,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,250 | 1,087 | 45.1%490 W · 597 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49d1…2a44backed Capitals | 55c | 5,000$2,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,250 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd09…a188backed Capitals | 56c | 5,000$2,790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,209.94 | 617 | 48.5%299 W · 318 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Ducks | 1c | 4,665$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 745 | 0.7%5 W · 740 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -94.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Capitals | 55c | 4,505$2,477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,027.02 | 282 | 51.8%146 W · 136 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Capitals | 56c | 4,018$2,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,767.86 | 168 | 43.5%73 W · 95 L | -14.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Capitals | 55c | 4,000$2,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,800 | 866 | 49.9%432 W · 434 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe948…ff23backed Capitals | 56c | 3,990$2,234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,755.55 | 296 | 51.7%153 W · 143 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe76f…1eacbacked Capitals | 57c | 3,709$2,114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,594.77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x164f…deb3backed Ducks | 45c | 3,500$1,575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,575 | 254 | 46.5%118 W · 136 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…dfffbacked Ducks | 24c | 3,241$777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$777.17 | 299 | 26.4%79 W · 220 L | -20.5wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4fc…8af7backed Capitals | 56c | 3,200$1,779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,420.8 | 602 | 49.5%298 W · 304 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94fa…989ebacked Capitals | 55c | 3,139$1,726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,412.55 | 117 | 49.6%58 W · 59 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Capitals | 57c | 3,001$1,715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,285.53 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef23…5b60backed Capitals | 56c | 2,755$1,543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,211.98 | 642 | 42.2%271 W · 371 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96ca…5a71backed Ducks | 39c | 2,674$1,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,045 | 554 | 46.4%257 W · 297 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Ducks | 44c | 2,664$1,172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,172.27 | 566 | 49.5%280 W · 286 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf06d…83f2backed Ducks | 45c | 2,655$1,195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,194.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31b0…8c4cbacked Capitals | 53c | 2,560$1,355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,204.52 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Capitals | 55c | 2,500$1,384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,115.6 | 976 | 51.6%504 W · 472 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Capitals | 55c | 2,398$1,319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,079.09 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Capitals | 70c | 2,286$1,611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675.03 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x494e…c549backed Capitals | 57c | 2,105$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$905.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc127…66e9backed Ducks | 44c | 2,105$926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$926 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f4…0566backed Capitals | 61c | 2,099$1,285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$814.33 | 950 | 49.1%466 W · 484 L | +12.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eed…85a9backed Capitals | 70c | 1,740$1,218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.08 | 73 | 58.9%43 W · 30 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d82…a51cbacked Capitals | 56c | 1,663$931 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$731.56 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1e…ff14backed Capitals | 56c | 1,551$869 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$682.4 | 480 | 50.6%243 W · 237 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea8…ddc0backed Ducks | 45c | 1,500$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -6.8wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Ducks | 46c | 1,500$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Ducks | 25c | 1,500$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 333 | 45.6%152 W · 181 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce4…88ecbacked Ducks | 45c | 1,450$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652.47 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Capitals | 64c | 1,388$887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.1 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Capitals | 55c | 1,269$698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.17 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2a…0525backed Capitals | 56c | 1,207$676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.14 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c8…d8a4backed Ducks | 45c | 1,111$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa70d…f721backed Ducks | 45c | 1,054$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.2 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Ducks | 39c | 1,000$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.05 | 1,354 | 52.6%712 W · 642 L | +46.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd589…27c2backed Ducks | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 428 | 47.2%202 W · 226 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7501…2452backed Ducks | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…f205backed Ducks | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 242 | 0.8%2 W · 240 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65d2…84e1backed Capitals | 57c | 1,000$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f9…86ecbacked Capitals | 55c | 999.86$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.94 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7d…5e51backed Capitals | 56c | 950$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf965…9e79backed Ducks | 17c | 915.89$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.6 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Capitals | 68c | 904.26$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.36 | 170 | 57.6%98 W · 72 L | +15.0wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5975…ef54backed Ducks | 44c | 857.68$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.38 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…a228backed Capitals | 56c | 855$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6960…f58ebacked Capitals | 56c | 850$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Capitals | 56c | 816.1$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.97 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb7…af33backed Capitals | 56c | 800$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1467…4372backed Ducks | 45c | 764.44$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344 | 321 | 51.7%166 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed Capitals | 56c | 750$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 1,475 | 48.3%712 W · 763 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a6…e151backed Ducks | 44c | 727.48$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.09 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Capitals | 57c | 724$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.32 | 793 | 50.1%397 W · 396 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Capitals | 56c | 700$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311 | 684 | 49.9%341 W · 343 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Capitals | 55c | 699.98$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.99 | 211 | 47.4%100 W · 111 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Ducks | 44c | 681.82$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 318 | 48.1%153 W · 165 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8fc…04aabacked Capitals | 56c | 644.79$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.71 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x15f9…607ebacked Ducks | 45c | 640$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Ducks | 45c | 636$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.2 | 619 | 53.8%333 W · 286 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03d9…e693backed Ducks | 2c | 614.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 55 | 7.3%4 W · 51 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 3cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Ducks | 5c | 603$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.31 | 1,054 | 42.5%448 W · 606 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6477…cc5bbacked Ducks | 33c | 600.87$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.65 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…e9b4backed Capitals | 56c | 600$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Ducks | 44c | 580.49$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.41 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Ducks | 7c | 574.51$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.65 | 996 | 38.2%380 W · 616 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765c…0779backed Capitals | 56c | 559.99$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.19 | 400 | 49.3%197 W · 203 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd110…ed30backed Ducks | 45c | 555.56$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Ducks | 45c | 555.56$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 295 | 51.9%153 W · 142 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x101c…7df8backed Ducks | 45c | 538$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Ducks | 11c | 536.75$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.2 | 94 | 23.4%22 W · 72 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9534…1fe8backed Capitals | 55c | 527.45$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.35 | 228 | 52.6%120 W · 108 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Capitals | 57c | 526.32$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.32 | 472 | 56.8%268 W · 204 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5110…7928backed Ducks | 44c | 510.31$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x239e…ef98backed Ducks | 44c | 509.09$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf50b…3cadbacked Ducks | 44c | 508.68$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.82 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb023…f142backed Capitals | 56c | 500$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f40…bd86backed Ducks | 44c | 500$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ducks vs. Capitalsthis page
- Ducks vs. Capitals: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Capitals (-1.5)Capitals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.