Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on July 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4dfeec32a616a7f84d3a8bb421276ccf7fbc26d0a37bc1100d79f7eb53cd8ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,111
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,668
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,111 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 36c | 426.09$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.91 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1822…022fbacked No | 44c | 419.86$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.14 | 155 | 20.6%32 W · 123 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 8c | 332.29$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 77c | 254.45$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.34 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 11c | 184.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 63c | 168.92$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.21 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…975cbacked No | 55c | 155.29$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 33c | 145.31$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.36 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 69c | 128.88$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.29 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf4…f4c3backed Yes | 40c | 120$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 116 | 26.7%31 W · 85 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 20c | 117.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 33c | 105$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.73 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d98…680abacked Yes | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 96.86$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.49 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 42c | 93.96$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.87 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 26c | 93.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 37c | 91$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.94 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8c…23c8backed No | 63c | 89.07$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.1 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes | 34c | 87.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.14 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 53c | 86.92$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.31 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 39c | 85.87$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.55 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 15c | 83.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 31c | 80.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.57 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29bd…b52cbacked Yes | 26c | 78.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.92 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41c7…0b47backed Yes | 72c | 75.75$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9470…989dbacked Yes | 35c | 75.52$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.72 | 109 | 27.5%30 W · 79 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 25c | 72.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 47c | 70.82$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.16 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 19c | 70.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 47c | 70.06$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 69.41$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.86 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 67c | 69.14$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.66 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79f8…7ffebacked Yes | 69c | 66.2$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 64.21$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.38 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.7 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 69c | 59$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.72 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…29b4backed No | 27c | 50.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2868…9b6bbacked Yes | 34c | 50.32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.96 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 35c | 47.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.13 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd15…5919backed Yes | 76c | 42.18$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 74cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 35c | 41.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.29 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…8943backed Yes | 32c | 41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.88 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 48c | 40.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 69c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 79c | 37.11$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 36c | 36.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.39 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 65c | 36.32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 34c | 35.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bdc…e076backed Yes | 44c | 34.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.23 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 72c | 31.71$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 38c | 30.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked Yes | 73c | 30.24$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 287 | 42.5%122 W · 165 L | +24.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b36…0d4bbacked Yes | 67c | 29.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 67c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a0…0c7abacked No | 62c | 27.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadd7…8622backed No | 68c | 26.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 177 | 66.7%118 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 64c | 26.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 70c | 25.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbe…ddf5backed Yes | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6986…5585backed No | 60c | 23.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…1d87backed Yes | 56c | 22.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 74c | 21.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf51f…24e8backed No | 65c | 21.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -4.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x254a…dacbbacked No | 71c | 21.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 169 | 50.9%86 W · 83 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7412…c3a6backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf424…6e3ebacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 62 | 66.1%41 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff1…e002backed No | 68c | 17.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 69c | 17.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…d0e4backed Yes | 75c | 13.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.34 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on July 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.