Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on July 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x203fe4be1ad609827f56efe1b301d2706bce13ccbea8c08602fbc0f9f0417174
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,459
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,613
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,459 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 3c | 4,042$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.67 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 20c | 966.37$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.31 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x001b…698bbacked Yes | 1c | 914.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 18c | 887.22$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.53 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcad1…7cf9backed Yes | 15c | 547.61$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.59 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 26c | 448.91$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.46 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 73c | 423$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.01 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 16c | 327.74$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.48 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8864…3ed5backed No | 70c | 294.36$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.88 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 18c | 279.01$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.62 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 22c | 272.9$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.19 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…8af6backed Yes | 28c | 201.86$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.02 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 17c | 196.45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.97 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 17c | 156.59$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.43 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 11c | 153.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ffe…e48bbacked Yes | 24c | 151.81$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 66 | 19.7%13 W · 53 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 69c | 132.82$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.64 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec47…0c22backed Yes | 26c | 116.77$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.88 | 182 | 22%40 W · 142 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 17c | 114.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb185…48c1backed Yes | 30c | 111.27$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.07 | 197 | 20.8%41 W · 156 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6631…2fc8backed No | 65c | 102.23$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed Yes | 29c | 101.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf4…f4c3backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 116 | 26.7%31 W · 85 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29bd…b52cbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 19c | 99.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 78c | 99.74$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.58 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8c…23c8backed No | 68c | 89.37$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 79c | 86.92$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb04…48cfbacked Yes | 24c | 82.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.12 | 100 | 23%23 W · 77 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 17c | 77.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 66c | 73$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 65.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2868…9b6bbacked Yes | 36c | 64.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 29c | 63.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 24c | 62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 74c | 58.05$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5597…0c9fbacked Yes | 26c | 57.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0064…dd4dbacked Yes | 36c | 57.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 73c | 56.44$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 70c | 53.26$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32a8…be9bbacked Yes | 19c | 51.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 86 | 67.4%58 W · 28 L | +10.6wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked No | 69c | 50.85$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d3…a178backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2330…ed99backed Yes | 27c | 43.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 73c | 42.31$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e66…4e16backed No | 66c | 37.87$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe9…0269backed No | 72c | 35.03$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadd7…8622backed No | 66c | 31.41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 177 | 66.7%118 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…3b13backed No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 74c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 77c | 25.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed No | 66c | 25.84$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 69c | 25.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 25.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff5…14babacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 153 | 75.2%115 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ec…5946backed No | 70c | 23.73$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 73c | 20.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6986…5585backed No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 75c | 19.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 74c | 18.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 74c | 18.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a0…0c7abacked No | 70c | 18.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 72c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 72c | 16.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff1…e002backed No | 72c | 16.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 75c | 13.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.41 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…8f82backed No | 80c | 13.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.61 | 41 | 78%32 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 74cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddfa…014fbacked No | 79c | 12.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on July 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on July 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.