Earnings · resolved market
Will HP (HPQ) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd51547cb1230a175172a2cc26db38aa0775589b70461635f13376a015ce56e62
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,031
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,658
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,031 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 15c | 782.37$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$668.93 | 768 | 37.4%287 W · 481 L | +35.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d9…087fbacked Yes | 39c | 764.33$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.4 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.25per pick | 61cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86ff…9440backed No | 61c | 593.72$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed No | 72c | 544.56$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.99 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9256…2e8bbacked No | 55c | 473.92$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.93 | 81 | 61.7%50 W · 31 L | +8.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9379…2e25backed Yes | 40c | 414.99$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.16 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.4wins | +0.38per pick | 51cpaid | +133.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 62c | 357.74$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.34 | 676 | 42.9%290 W · 386 L | -36.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebb…017abacked Yes | 36c | 274.32$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.32 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x202d…3d97backed No | 59c | 270.54$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.61 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…2709backed Yes | 56c | 264$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.39 | 82 | 67.1%55 W · 27 L | +11.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e6…757abacked Yes | 46c | 170$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 45c | 158.99$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.98 | 582 | 39%227 W · 355 L | -25.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc5…7c0abacked Yes | 47c | 156.06$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.42 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x854e…8ad8backed No | 71c | 140$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6768…8540backed No | 71c | 139.72$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 23c | 138.38$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.59 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31e…d4b3backed Yes | 58c | 138.23$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.23 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -39%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa31…5cc1backed Yes | 34c | 131.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.26 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…10c5backed Yes | 34c | 131.04$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +253.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…5790backed No | 39c | 129.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +109.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3313…8355backed Yes | 39c | 128.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.95 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 34c | 127.35$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.19 | 464 | 14.2%66 W · 398 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x980a…bb1bbacked Yes | 40c | 121.34$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.84 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee65…4f6abacked Yes | 38c | 114.09$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +95.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaf…064fbacked No | 68c | 113.81$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.58 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30c3…1331backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25b9…3058backed No | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6041…2012backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a0a…9229backed Yes | 44c | 99.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 115 | 66.1%76 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf36…94e8backed No | 64c | 87.79$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.07 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbf…2bdebacked Yes | 46c | 86.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.82 | 100 | 67%67 W · 33 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e96…633fbacked No | 49c | 74.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 59c | 62.6$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 74 | 27%20 W · 54 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x211f…8e0fbacked Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 73 | 58.9%43 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd0…53b4backed No | 54c | 56.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 86 | 34.9%30 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…2019backed Yes | 37c | 53.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.86 | 174 | 41.4%72 W · 102 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 213 | 41.3%88 W · 125 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x854c…01e2backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 218 | 61%133 W · 85 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8b…6fc5backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…9ea3backed Yes | 36c | 49.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 107 | 60.7%65 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e2…73bebacked No | 60c | 48.32$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…f4a4backed No | 53c | 45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 37cpaid | -58%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 63c | 44.41$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 118 | 31.4%37 W · 81 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb102…c73dbacked Yes | 38c | 41.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | -12.1wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 60c | 39.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4151…7283backed No | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 71cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87b9…b193backed No | 70c | 35.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes | 29c | 35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.85 | 90 | 16.7%15 W · 75 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8d…13b7backed Yes | 34c | 32.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Yes | 38c | 31.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.54 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 155 | 30.3%47 W · 108 L | -20.2wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f6…4049backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaea3…3f02backed No | 65c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fd…0c0abacked No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2164…ca6cbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 58c | 24.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad8…69c9backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe72e…b33dbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 157 | 65%102 W · 55 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2523…3f0fbacked Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85f8…b0e1backed No | 72c | 14.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.