Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on April 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd55d4d5c50dda926d0b2354e50a342f71c2ec937aa1009a9811f3369f00331e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,027
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,375
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,027 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd01…c83dbacked Yes | 7c | 714.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf136…f66abacked Yes | 56c | 571.76$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.87 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f0…22e0backed Yes | 10c | 495.18$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.12 | 70 | 21.4%15 W · 55 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 56c | 372.27$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.42 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d14…ee01backed Yes | 56c | 300$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -28%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed No | 43c | 253.73$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.68 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 8c | 250.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d2…39b0backed Yes | 52c | 181.94$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.23 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 11c | 181.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 38c | 178.21$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.49 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b33…044ebacked Yes | 60c | 176.6$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.28 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x327d…977bbacked Yes | 28c | 159.44$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.82 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 35c | 158.39$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.73 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c5…2420backed Yes | 61c | 156.33$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.89 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 31c | 141.73$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.73 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 19c | 128.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 29c | 127.85$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.48 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 127.35$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.43 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 47c | 124.84$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.12 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked No | 41c | 118.3$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.96 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes | 40c | 116.44$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.58 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 42c | 114.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.8 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 11c | 110.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed No | 72c | 110.82$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.53 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 72c | 109.07$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.66 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 14c | 107.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd991…0133backed Yes | 62c | 104.83$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.45 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe731…55b9backed Yes | 46c | 103.02$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.3 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 57c | 100.4$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.98 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…0329backed No | 70c | 99.82$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.61 | 81 | 60.5%49 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 58c | 99.15$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed Yes | 48c | 96.32$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.66 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 43c | 94.46$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.09 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76a6…b7dcbacked Yes | 26c | 92.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0baa…ff26backed No | 43c | 92.32$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.71 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 38c | 89.11$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8c…e526backed Yes | 47c | 87.44$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.73 | 87 | 27.6%24 W · 63 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09d4…7a4ebacked Yes | 42c | 85.49$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.02 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 31c | 85.25$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe21…f884backed Yes | 30c | 84.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 56c | 83.03$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.55 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbd…ceeabacked Yes | 46c | 81.44$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.86 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…bf33backed No | 58c | 81.4$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 67c | 75.34$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x290c…ab10backed Yes | 35c | 69.61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 42c | 67.54$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 40c | 64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e97…4828backed Yes | 43c | 61.22$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.36 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked No | 61c | 58.88$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.24 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 50c | 57.49$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 42c | 56.65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 27c | 56.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a3…fc4abacked No | 72c | 53.36$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 130 | 59.2%77 W · 53 L | -11.4wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x151f…fd4ebacked Yes | 37c | 51.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -6.3wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 31c | 51.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6fa…4f2dbacked No | 58c | 51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 25c | 48.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397b…5024backed Yes | 54c | 47.43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3a…1439backed Yes | 44c | 47.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 39c | 46.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2282…da13backed No | 42c | 45.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.33 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 28c | 44.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbafc…d03fbacked Yes | 54c | 43.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +29%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 58c | 43.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2f…bad2backed No | 48c | 42.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 52c | 42.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 48c | 41.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.62 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 57c | 41.15$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 52c | 40.11$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a23…fd22backed Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x322e…a2cebacked Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 94 | 33%31 W · 63 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 52c | 38.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 30c | 37.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff3…4957backed Yes | 46c | 37.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 36c | 37.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes | 29c | 37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 191 | 23%44 W · 147 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 30c | 36.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 31c | 35.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 58c | 35.49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked No | 38c | 34.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 209 | 28.7%60 W · 149 L | -45.3wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x438c…481abacked Yes | 42c | 33.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d93…f70abacked Yes | 59c | 32.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8001…c76fbacked Yes | 41c | 31.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 63cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.69 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 53c | 28.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c8d…84afbacked Yes | 65c | 28.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37d3…4e40backed No | 60c | 27.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2db0…4a9ebacked Yes | 53c | 26.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe768…10efbacked Yes | 56c | 25.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 113 | 55.8%63 W · 50 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5f…867dbacked No | 48c | 25.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x318b…d827backed No | 60c | 25.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -5.3wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…fb04backed Yes | 47c | 25.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 118 | 44.9%53 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d92…ab61backed Yes | 42c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…0ef1backed Yes | 53c | 24.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 102 | 58.8%60 W · 42 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 47c | 24.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 62c | 22.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7233…ff3ebacked Yes | 52c | 22.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked Yes | 54c | 19.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 208 | 66.8%139 W · 69 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 59c | 19.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on April 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C or below on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on April 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C or higher on April 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.