MLB · resolved market
Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5a1367e70d0cff51ca13164eafb841eec583792a5cf8738570c039007e47bc2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,692
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,812
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,692 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 54c | 771.51$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.76 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Under | 44c | 724.15$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.53 | 272 | 49.3%134 W · 138 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 47c | 561.93$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.66 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 53c | 555.55$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.11 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 46c | 397.38$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.2 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 51c | 366.7$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.11 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 54c | 307$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.1 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 53c | 286.99$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.09 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 48c | 243.5$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.36 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Under | 54c | 230.89$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.35 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Under | 42c | 202.38$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.38 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Under | 53c | 186.11$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.47 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 940 | 34.3%322 W · 618 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Under | 53c | 154.15$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.45 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 56c | 148.37$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.09 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 51c | 124.14$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.25 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 55c | 123$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.65 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 52c | 119.31$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.67 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8193…8c82backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Under | 27c | 84.29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.59 | 477 | 43%205 W · 272 L | -12.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 44c | 83.86$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.96 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 28c | 83.26$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.13 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6815…9edbbacked Over | 68c | 78.46$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.35 | 447 | 44.1%197 W · 250 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x404c…5c87backed Over | 56c | 75$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 56c | 68$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 27c | 61.32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.76 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Over | 47c | 61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 303 | 40.6%123 W · 180 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1980…3340backed Under | 53c | 57.92$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.22 | 324 | 50.9%165 W · 159 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 56c | 53.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Over | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 53c | 52.37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.61 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 56c | 50.37$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.21 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 29c | 48.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.61 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 44c | 43.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Under | 54c | 37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 435 | 60%261 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6123…8b33backed Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 268 | 53.7%144 W · 124 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9152…b04bbacked Under | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 53c | 34.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.29 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Over | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 465 | 57.2%266 W · 199 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 47c | 25.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 53c | 25.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 56c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Over | 50c | 23.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a98…639dbacked Over | 57c | 21.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 309 | 60.2%186 W · 123 L | +16.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 56c | 20.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7701…6ea2backed Over | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 170 | 51.8%88 W · 82 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 65c | 18.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5this page
- Athletics vs. Houston AstrosAthletics won
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 11.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 12.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-3.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-4.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. Houston AstrosNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.