MLB · resolved market
Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27931c4c452c72d75bc4ae93722cc5361e439f67e6e875a4f2cb5735508fb826
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $101,855
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $102,533
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $101,855 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbddf…c684backed Over | 45c | 47,073$21,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,200.24 | 239 | 48.5%116 W · 123 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72d8…5213backed Under | 55c | 46,000$25,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,700 | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +9.2wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Over | 46c | 40,146$18,467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,467.12 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 54c | 27,553$14,882 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,670.04 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 54c | 11,533$6,228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,305.64 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Over | 46c | 3,911$1,799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,799.15 | 217 | 48.4%105 W · 112 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Under | 54c | 3,356$1,812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,543.76 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 54c | 1,740$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.4 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 45c | 1,506$684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$683.91 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 75c | 1,154$864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.66 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 54c | 1,119$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.97 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…960fbacked Over | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 859 | 52.6%452 W · 407 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 27c | 919.6$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.07 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcba5…cd88backed Under | 55c | 600$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 660 | 50.2%331 W · 329 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Over | 46c | 550.73$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.34 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 54c | 480$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.8 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ad…6979backed Over | 46c | 477.46$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.8 | 134 | 41%55 W · 79 L | -12.2wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 54c | 455.98$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.14 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 54c | 400$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 68c | 305.25$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.08 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 38c | 271.59$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.68 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Under | 54c | 266.31$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.5 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee6b…accbbacked Over | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 51c | 204.08$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.08 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 44c | 160.03$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.92 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 54c | 144$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.24 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3599…5338backed Over | 47c | 127.66$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 128 | 48.4%62 W · 66 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 54c | 123.5$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.81 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 30c | 108.88$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.54 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6210…4fb1backed Over | 46c | 108$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 147 | 59.9%88 W · 59 L | +14.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 61c | 74.67$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee88…5fcfbacked Under | 62c | 72.77$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.65 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Under | 61c | 70.03$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.31 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1950…1bf4backed Under | 54c | 65.53$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.14 | 292 | 55.8%163 W · 129 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 59c | 64.7$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.76 | 873 | 52.7%460 W · 413 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 41c | 64.34$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.09 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Over | 33c | 64.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 477 | 43%205 W · 272 L | -12.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Under | 63c | 63.64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 435 | 60%261 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6600…d5fdbacked Over | 47c | 57.45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 81 | 45.7%37 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Under | 54c | 54.57$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.1 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 40c | 53.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 40c | 45.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x282b…cc76backed Over | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 126 | 46.8%59 W · 67 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6123…8b33backed Over | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 268 | 53.7%144 W · 124 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 65c | 42.28$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Under | 54c | 37.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x193a…2b55backed Under | 67c | 32.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 234 | 55.1%129 W · 105 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xece7…3353backed Over | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e70…2e2dbacked Over | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -39%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 43c | 31.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.23 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99d5…9622backed Over | 47c | 29.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 76 | 43.4%33 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacee…afddbacked Under | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 217 | 51.6%112 W · 105 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Over | 46c | 24.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 556 | 43.9%244 W · 312 L | -38.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked Under | 54c | 24.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +6.3wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84a2…e0b6backed Under | 54c | 23.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 60c | 19.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Under | 59c | 17.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x346f…cdf3backed Under | 64c | 15.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Under | 69c | 15.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5this page
- Athletics vs. Houston AstrosAthletics won
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 11.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 12.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-3.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Athletics (-4.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. Houston AstrosNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.