La Liga · resolved market
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. CA Osasuna: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5c5a76eac39dcb9fc8544f182e962f444fb1fadfef606c69e45eef94e6e5716
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,319
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,638
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,319 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfc97…7d32backed Over | 59c | 1,916$1,130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$785.5 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 33c | 1,500$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.99 | 387 | 29.5%114 W · 273 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 37c | 1,470$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.83 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Over | 68c | 1,397$950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.04 | 200 | 54%108 W · 92 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c7…3fa6backed Over | 68c | 735.29$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.29 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.28per pick | 50cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 27c | 634.37$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.24 | 1,655 | 43.8%725 W · 930 L | -22.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 76c | 539.2$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.99 | 128 | 75%96 W · 32 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 18c | 536$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.55 | 839 | 39.8%334 W · 505 L | -21.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 32c | 500$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 428 | 51.4%220 W · 208 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 32c | 407.83$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.61 | 2,343 | 48.5%1,137 W · 1,206 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9055…12cebacked Under | 49c | 360$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.4 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +7.3wins | +0.17per pick | 36cpaid | +105.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 14c | 178.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 284 | 46.5%132 W · 152 L | -16.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf79e…9a84backed Under | 32c | 170$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 119 | 52.9%63 W · 56 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7de…4d6dbacked Over | 68c | 155.9$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.36 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 39c | 154.31$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.52 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Under | 32c | 142.06$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.46 | 216 | 26.9%58 W · 158 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 60c | 115$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.55 | 370 | 39.2%145 W · 225 L | -14.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked Over | 66c | 97$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.98 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Under | 32c | 75.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 225 | 52.4%118 W · 107 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 78c | 70.51$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 168 | 65.5%110 W · 58 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 34c | 69.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 1,018 | 53.1%541 W · 477 L | -24.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…82d7backed Over | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 78 | 65.4%51 W · 27 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7567…0923backed Over | 67c | 64$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df8…475cbacked Over | 61c | 63$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 67c | 59.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 421 | 58%244 W · 177 L | +29.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xacbc…e374backed Over | 72c | 55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…6f8cbacked Over | 66c | 48$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0095…42c1backed Over | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 221 | 57%126 W · 95 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed Under | 32c | 43.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 77c | 43.88$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 174 | 58.6%102 W · 72 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…c2e5backed Over | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 247 | 57.5%142 W · 105 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 72c | 41.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 387 | 48.1%186 W · 201 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…a35bbacked Over | 66c | 39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f6…4288backed Over | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 25 | 92%23 W · 2 L | +5.2wins | +0.21per pick | 71cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x25f6…fcd2backed Over | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 42 | 83.3%35 W · 7 L | +5.6wins | +0.13per pick | 70cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6c…2854backed Over | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2eae…a25fbacked Over | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 139 | 36%50 W · 89 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d67…cf38backed Over | 66c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7312…bbe6backed Over | 67c | 21.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Over | 67c | 21.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 204 | 52.5%107 W · 97 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 60c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 232 | 50.4%117 W · 115 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd5…ef85backed Over | 67c | 17.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. CA Osasuna: O/U 1.5this page
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. CA Osasuna: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. CA Osasuna: O/U 2.5Over won
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. CA Osasuna: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.