MLB · resolved market
Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5e00db2a539de67a952ca40393e89643e16a38abc6c940f9ff9c48ca5f4f99f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Miami Marlinsof Miami Marlins, Arizona Diamondbacks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,246
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,282
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,246 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x70dc…1dfdbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 21c | 4,002$847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$847.36 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | -17.3wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Miami Marlins | 38c | 3,507$1,327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,180.09 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 74c | 667.88$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.4 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Miami Marlins | 26c | 459.94$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.48 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Miami Marlins | 78c | 265$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.3 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Miami Marlins | 80c | 258.38$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.68 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Miami Marlins | 79c | 254.14$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.04 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e4…a1adbacked Miami Marlins | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 132 | 64.4%85 W · 47 L | +9.3wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Miami Marlins | 19c | 187.91$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.21 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 20c | 129.18$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.19 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3d…95b1backed Miami Marlins | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.11 | 286 | 39.2%112 W · 174 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 52c | 99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.48 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | +7.9wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…1d43backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 39c | 99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.61 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Miami Marlins | 18c | 94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.3 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…6d43backed Miami Marlins | 18c | 84.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.22 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Miami Marlins | 51c | 69.22$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.82 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Miami Marlins | 69c | 62.32$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 45c | 44.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 116 | 48.3%56 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 34c | 40.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa11f…1252backed Miami Marlins | 76c | 31.9$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 186 | 51.1%95 W · 91 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Miami Marlins | 50c | 28.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b95…5733backed Miami Marlins | 52c | 25.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda54…b8a1backed Miami Marlins | 41c | 24.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 284 | 56.7%161 W · 123 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 51c | 22.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 10.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 11.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 4.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-4.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami MarlinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.