MLB · resolved market
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b40d71aeeaf72a8bf822a883353d87a6c351843bf2cb20b85b2a09ab8e40c42
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,642
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,805
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,642 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Over | 55c | 15,000$8,249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,750.97 | 484 | 51%247 W · 237 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 45c | 6,861$3,088 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,087.54 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 56c | 5,555$3,111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,110.8 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 52c | 4,559$2,363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,195.82 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 46c | 2,745$1,256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,256.46 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 61c | 1,445$876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.67 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…cab2backed Under | 45c | 1,345$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605.46 | 97 | 49.5%48 W · 49 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 68c | 1,262$854 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.6 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b4e…a24abacked Under | 45c | 893.96$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.28 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -4.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Under | 56c | 779.99$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.8 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x689c…6b1ebacked Under | 49c | 617.82$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.73 | 94 | 50%47 W · 47 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 37c | 513.69$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.91 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Under | 56c | 499.99$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.99 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 29c | 433.58$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.34 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 29c | 371.53$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.48 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 56c | 330$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.8 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 22c | 311.93$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.54 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 44c | 300$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | +7.9wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 56c | 300$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Under | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 42c | 137.14$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 42c | 137.14$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 42c | 135.03$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.05 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 45c | 123.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.8 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 45c | 102.6$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.17 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Over | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 652 | 48.3%315 W · 337 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x250f…4fc6backed Under | 56c | 90$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 130 | 25.4%33 W · 97 L | -17.3wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Under | 45c | 77.78$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6815…9edbbacked Under | 42c | 68.57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 447 | 44.1%197 W · 250 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 30c | 62.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 56c | 59.17$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.04 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca2b…3489backed Under | 45c | 55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 292 | 42.5%124 W · 168 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Under | 52c | 54.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.51 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 45c | 48.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +23.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 46c | 42.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 55c | 42.27$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Under | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 48c | 36.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…d4fbbacked Under | 56c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 209 | 62.7%131 W · 78 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 46c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Under | 45c | 26.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Under | 64c | 24.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Under | 49c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 56c | 20.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 10.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 11.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 4.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-4.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami MarlinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.