MLB · resolved market
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf9c26cb49071712802e8b7ee6d029cec54ae7c90fe9e09aae2a1ec6beeea2ee9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,798
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,651
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,798 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b1e…65c1backed Over | 42c | 1,312$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760.95 | 299 | 48.8%146 W · 153 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 72c | 1,004$724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.58 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 42c | 873.87$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.92 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e4…a1adbacked Over | 76c | 599$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.59 | 132 | 64.4%85 W · 47 L | +9.3wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 47c | 445.25$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.62 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 41c | 435.17$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.05 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 34c | 306.7$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.42 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 55c | 270.91$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.84 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 66c | 265.87$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.48 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 22c | 250.91$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.63 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 60c | 238.97$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.38 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 34c | 199.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.99 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | +7.9wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 41c | 181.23$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.86 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 45c | 167.61$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.67 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 50c | 138.38$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.08 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 56c | 133.25$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.24 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 56c | 132.57$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.24 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 27c | 111.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.43 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 37c | 92.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Under | 68c | 82.35$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 395 | 53.7%212 W · 183 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 55c | 76.74$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.02 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6123…8b33backed Over | 34c | 73.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.53 | 268 | 53.7%144 W · 124 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Under | 68c | 72.65$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 293 | 54.9%161 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 76c | 71.18$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 26c | 62.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6303…9556backed Under | 67c | 59.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16f3…e1eebacked Under | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 112 | 56.3%63 W · 49 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8193…8c82backed Over | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.99 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 66c | 49.17$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Under | 68c | 46.07$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.33 | 362 | 50.3%182 W · 180 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8bd…478fbacked Over | 44c | 45.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.75 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 35c | 43.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 25c | 40.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Over | 34c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Under | 60c | 35.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a6…5c87backed Over | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Under | 49c | 26.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Under | 68c | 24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 79c | 23.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6266…19fcbacked Under | 67c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15f9…0411backed Under | 67c | 21.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Under | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 289 | 43.3%125 W · 164 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc38…bd83backed Under | 67c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x627c…aa80backed Under | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc2…d7c0backed Under | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 64cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 10.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 11.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 4.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-4.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami MarlinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.