MLB · resolved market
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcaacef0c43723fa43ac1a30efc737c0142b9b42d384491c47e1ea91e5024e6be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,735
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,481
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,735 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6bc9…ab64backed Under | 6c | 10,144$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.88 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +87.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 56c | 4,244$2,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,884.52 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 43c | 3,850$1,655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,655.21 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78bf…7300backed Under | 6c | 2,999$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.93 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +262.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 53c | 2,702$1,435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,267 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x238d…eb74backed Under | 6c | 1,998$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.89 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x417e…85e4backed Under | 2c | 1,660$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 4cpaid | +809.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 32c | 1,177$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$805.97 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 48c | 889.85$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.12 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x923d…8142backed Under | 9c | 643.31$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 41c | 462.01$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.06 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 42c | 433.36$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.54 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae51…0d08backed Over | 28c | 418.86$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.54 | 364 | 40.1%146 W · 218 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 26c | 418.46$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.33 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98bd…8a55backed Over | 28c | 356.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.18 | 92 | 58.7%54 W · 38 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Under | 74c | 266.96$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 395 | 53.7%212 W · 183 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 28c | 200$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | +7.9wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 73c | 197.16$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.93 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f55…8956backed Over | 56c | 197.11$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.73 | 148 | 58.8%87 W · 61 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e4…a1adbacked Over | 56c | 99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.56 | 132 | 64.4%85 W · 47 L | +9.3wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 46c | 86.18$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.32 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Under | 53c | 85.85$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8328…e5ebbacked Under | 53c | 74.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.77 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…def7backed Over | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Under | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 374 | 51.3%192 W · 182 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 37c | 43.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x348c…c8efbacked Under | 54c | 40.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 104 | 38.5%40 W · 64 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Under | 46c | 38.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Over | 28c | 36.68$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.46 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Under | 75c | 33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 41c | 32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 45c | 29.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…1d43backed Under | 36c | 29.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7a…f619backed Under | 75c | 24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0011…4cbabacked Under | 64c | 23.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 309 | 63.1%195 W · 114 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Under | 72c | 22.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e5…1ea5backed Over | 56c | 19.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 10.5this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 11.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 4.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-4.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami MarlinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.