TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Miami Marlinsof Miami Marlins, Arizona Diamondbacks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$58,022
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$59,084

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,022 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc974…b33bbacked Miami Marlins39c14,740$5,749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,991.288633.7%29 W · 57 L-5.6wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-17.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Miami Marlins31c7,698$2,405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,293.098,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Arizona Diamondbacks67c5,204$3,467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,467.444,27947.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L-83.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Miami Marlins38c5,000$1,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,099.891,06348.2%512 W · 551 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Arizona Diamondbacks58c3,673$2,137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,136.5512,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed Arizona Diamondbacks61c3,000$1,830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,83077951.1%398 W · 381 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks62c2,517$1,561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,560.621,15149.2%566 W · 585 L-0.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Arizona Diamondbacks61c2,515$1,534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,534.385,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Arizona Diamondbacks73c2,507$1,828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,828.344,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks68c2,368$1,602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,602.0911,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8adc…bafcbacked Arizona Diamondbacks61c2,000$1,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2204344.2%19 W · 24 L-5.1wins-0.12per pick56cpaid-18.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Arizona Diamondbacks58c1,711$996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$995.538,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Arizona Diamondbacks61c1,143$698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$697.793,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks61c1,000$611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$611.491,83650.8%932 W · 904 L-3.9wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Arizona Diamondbacks61c799.99$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4926,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Miami Marlins43c559.66$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.9110,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2805…76edbacked Arizona Diamondbacks45c508.38$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.7721242%89 W · 123 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+0.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Miami Marlins47c483.93$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.313,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc235…99f8backed Arizona Diamondbacks62c482.99$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.1189053.1%473 W · 417 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa85b…eb0ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks62c459.94$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.1629354.9%161 W · 132 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d21…92e5backed Arizona Diamondbacks63c441.27$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2784761.7%29 W · 18 L+3.9wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+12.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Miami Marlins38c425.05$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.534,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Miami Marlins32c403.99$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.533,45751.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L+108.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9ea…b781backed Arizona Diamondbacks61c399.94$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.9656851.4%292 W · 276 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Arizona Diamondbacks56c370.06$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.054,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c66…e371backed Arizona Diamondbacks62c345.98$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.5136250.3%182 W · 180 L-0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e2f…f9babacked Miami Marlins42c314.44$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.0372655.4%402 W · 324 L+40.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+6.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Arizona Diamondbacks42c311$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.586,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Arizona Diamondbacks61c300$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1838,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1e4…a1adbacked Miami Marlins53c299$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.3913264.4%85 W · 47 L+9.3wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+10.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed Miami Marlins41c243.9$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.92751.9%14 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Miami Marlins37c237.84$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.843,83242.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L+0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cd6…3806backed Miami Marlins28c204.5$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.817752.5%93 W · 84 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82aa…fe2fbacked Miami Marlins42c200$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11615143.7%66 W · 85 L-12.0wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-17.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x52be…801ebacked Miami Marlins46c193.33$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.411846.6%55 W · 63 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f55…8956backed Arizona Diamondbacks59c183.12$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.1614858.8%87 W · 61 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x95fa…bf35backed Miami Marlins39c160.41$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.855644.6%25 W · 31 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe722…57c5backed Miami Marlins38c157.89$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.8994549%463 W · 482 L-38.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa057…d092backed Miami Marlins16c139.66$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.312,14439.6%849 W · 1,295 L+0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69e4…9bacbacked Miami Marlins38c135.84$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.223652.8%19 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Arizona Diamondbacks66c130.52$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.142,94751.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L-34.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Arizona Diamondbacks54c126.7$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.062,99550.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L-36.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9a0…c52bbacked Miami Marlins38c105.26$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.2623145.5%105 W · 126 L-8.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x17be…e5b4backed Miami Marlins27c104.44$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.7444651.6%230 W · 216 L+15.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3563…a0a2backed Miami Marlins46c104.25$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.732,22355.4%1,231 W · 992 L+73.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Miami Marlins38c100$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.52,37649.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L+17.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks40c97.41$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.225,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b95…5733backed Miami Marlins37c87.26$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.8321055.2%116 W · 94 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Arizona Diamondbacks48c87.11$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.812,58361.4%1,587 W · 996 L+70.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda54…b8a1backed Miami Marlins38c84.94$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.7528456.7%161 W · 123 L+11.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x13e5…1ea5backed Arizona Diamondbacks58c81.75$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.797949.4%39 W · 40 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-8.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Arizona Diamondbacks62c80.65$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5044348.5%215 W · 228 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Arizona Diamondbacks61c78$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.5899447.3%470 W · 524 L-6.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67d2…a008backed Miami Marlins39c76.92$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.9213565.2%88 W · 47 L+9.8wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+15.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3894…decfbacked Miami Marlins38c65.6$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.6837551.2%192 W · 183 L-0.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffc9…bf01backed Arizona Diamondbacks62c63.81$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.5619155.5%106 W · 85 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Miami Marlins20c60.54$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.383,20851.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L+146.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Arizona Diamondbacks51c57.31$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.086,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba90…a450backed Arizona Diamondbacks63c55.56$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353650%18 W · 18 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x000a…6cf7backed Miami Marlins30c51.09$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.8425260.7%153 W · 99 L+17.1wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+9.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1d2a…7682backed Miami Marlins27c49.93$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.456955.1%38 W · 31 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f14…ca5abacked Miami Marlins42c49.81$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.941,04249.4%515 W · 527 L+13.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Arizona Diamondbacks57c49.53$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.244,16950.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Arizona Diamondbacks36c41.67$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.889,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc85…aa54backed Miami Marlins30c40.28$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.3524243%104 W · 138 L-12.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8482…3f7abacked Arizona Diamondbacks62c40$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.81,06249.2%523 W · 539 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2815…7f0cbacked Arizona Diamondbacks63c39.68$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255961%36 W · 23 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0f4…6fa9backed Miami Marlins37c37.06$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.351,77758.4%1,037 W · 740 L+91.8wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+3.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7a3f…6712backed Miami Marlins51c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.745550.3%229 W · 226 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f86…404ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks64c29.06$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.610559%62 W · 43 L+6.4wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9a2f…b4b4backed Miami Marlins43c25.38$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.52650%13 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36aa…a683backed Arizona Diamondbacks62c23.62$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6444347.9%212 W · 231 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7891…c020backed Arizona Diamondbacks53c23.58$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.57152.1%37 W · 34 L-5.8wins-0.08per pick60cpaid+5.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Arizona Diamondbacks67c22$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.741,70849.9%852 W · 856 L-17.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e1b…106cbacked Arizona Diamondbacks74c18.89$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.988669.8%60 W · 26 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick66cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1719…ec68backed Arizona Diamondbacks63c16$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0872154.2%391 W · 330 L+20.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+144.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.