MLB · resolved market
Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4dc54d1a42052409c126df390e73251de25deb5a1a6193ba6f5b463c837e212d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Miami Marlinsof Miami Marlins, Arizona Diamondbacks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,645
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,889
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,645 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x70dc…1dfdbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 23c | 4,676$1,074 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,073.56 | 150 | 44%66 W · 84 L | -16.9wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Miami Marlins | 76c | 4,051$3,091 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$959.95 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 71c | 2,983$2,132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,132.4 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Miami Marlins | 30c | 1,435$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,003.59 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 57c | 1,371$782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$781.81 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6190…5d90backed Miami Marlins | 44c | 1,213$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679.48 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -5.2wins | -0.23per pick | 62cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Miami Marlins | 38c | 1,143$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$709.33 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Miami Marlins | 25c | 1,010$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$762.56 | 2,172 | 39.9%866 W · 1,306 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 67c | 940.01$626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626.31 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Miami Marlins | 77c | 469.7$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.03 | 3,219 | 51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L | +148.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x864a…7cacbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 73c | 292.41$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.75 | 182 | 57.7%105 W · 77 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e4…a1adbacked Miami Marlins | 31c | 250$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.1 | 136 | 64.7%88 W · 48 L | +10.1wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 80c | 197.96$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.38 | 1,947 | 53.1%1,033 W · 914 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…160bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Miami Marlins | 27c | 162.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.98 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Miami Marlins | 21c | 133$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.07 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Miami Marlins | 77c | 93$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.39 | 231 | 40.3%93 W · 138 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Miami Marlins | 32c | 85.92$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.67 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Miami Marlins | 26c | 74.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.07 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Miami Marlins | 55c | 55.26$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.86 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 57c | 50.64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.73 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b95…5733backed Miami Marlins | 32c | 49.79$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.92 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea10…a070backed Miami Marlins | 77c | 48.01$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 300 | 48%144 W · 156 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 38c | 41.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Miami Marlins | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda54…b8a1backed Miami Marlins | 42c | 36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 284 | 56.7%161 W · 123 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Miami Marlins | 49c | 33.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,194 | 29%346 W · 848 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca2b…3489backed Miami Marlins | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 292 | 42.5%124 W · 168 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 10.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 11.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 4.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-4.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami MarlinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.