MLB · resolved market
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5f3466d1382f5a6921eeb4faa75012c1365d0c0f49d80be03ce15490d54da46
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,018
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,039
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,018 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 60c | 1,506$897 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.38 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 35c | 1,062$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.04 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 36c | 880.81$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.09 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 72c | 763.78$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.93 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…023abacked Over | 78c | 760$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.8 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 22c | 576.11$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.12 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 36c | 507.46$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.28 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 43c | 423.46$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.13 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 46c | 422.58$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.86 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…7debbacked Under | 53c | 396.6$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.5 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca2b…3489backed Under | 48c | 336$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.72 | 292 | 42.5%124 W · 168 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 30c | 266.62$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.44 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 54c | 241$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.14 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 22c | 230.1$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.98 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c54…bebbbacked Under | 43c | 224.29$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.92 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 63c | 187.13$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.65 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 64c | 149$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.64 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 47c | 132.53$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.74 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe14a…62bebacked Over | 46c | 107.2$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.42 | 151 | 45.7%69 W · 82 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 67c | 94.7$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…df71backed Under | 66c | 90.91$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.96 | 309 | 34.3%106 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 41c | 86.7$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.11 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3622…083dbacked Over | 61c | 83.61$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71f5…4ccebacked Over | 22c | 80.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 88 | 50%44 W · 44 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 72c | 72.77$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.26 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Over | 53c | 71.7$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 62c | 70.23$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.59 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c2…5509backed Over | 34c | 64.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 221 | 54.3%120 W · 101 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bae…0a3fbacked Over | 34c | 64.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3186…2a53backed Over | 37c | 61.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Over | 36c | 61.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 304 | 54.3%165 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d30…5f85backed Over | 36c | 61.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 111 | 49.5%55 W · 56 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e9…d0a8backed Over | 37c | 60.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…189abacked Over | 37c | 59.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 238 | 54.2%129 W · 109 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…95e3backed Over | 37c | 59.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 267 | 52.8%141 W · 126 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ef…bcd3backed Over | 37c | 59.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b07…5f54backed Under | 50c | 55.66$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.83 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ab…7d30backed Over | 36c | 54.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 44c | 49.23$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 33c | 47.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 24c | 45.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 30c | 40.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…04a3backed Over | 67c | 39.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Under | 49c | 34.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 276 | 46.7%129 W · 147 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34cf…6659backed Under | 50c | 33.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc85…aa54backed Over | 45c | 30.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 242 | 43%104 W · 138 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…6d07backed Under | 50c | 30.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 516 | 56.6%292 W · 224 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29d8…e1b3backed Over | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 443 | 45.6%202 W · 241 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 59c | 27.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Over | 60c | 27.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Over | 39c | 26.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Under | 65c | 22.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6815…9edbbacked Under | 51c | 22.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 447 | 44.1%197 W · 250 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f4…918fbacked Under | 57c | 19.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 70c | 16.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 78c | 16.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5this page
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 4.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles DodgersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.