MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf014863e4d720c6fcf6c3bdfd15c106de9c02663c92de540e4fbb9fd8cb7afb0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,597
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,157
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,597 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked Yes | 45c | 987.97$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.59 | 252 | 49.2%124 W · 128 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5331…3672backed Yes | 44c | 648.5$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.24 | 175 | 40.6%71 W · 104 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 41c | 588.16$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.7 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed No | 56c | 449.99$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198 | 407 | 53.6%218 W · 189 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked No | 57c | 392$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.28 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked No | 77c | 355.64$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.64 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed No | 57c | 250.16$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.49 | 116 | 55.2%64 W · 52 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked No | 61c | 240.22$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.68 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x298c…3e58backed No | 60c | 237.99$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.49 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3d…95b1backed No | 56c | 230.26$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.26 | 286 | 39.2%112 W · 174 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…1d79backed No | 60c | 215.18$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.97 | 262 | 45.8%120 W · 142 L | -17.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Yes | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Yes | 39c | 199.74$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.9 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24cb…d2bdbacked No | 61c | 198.02$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.23 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67d3…b524backed No | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Yes | 40c | 162.73$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.09 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Yes | 22c | 147.91$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.26 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9abb…3f96backed No | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Yes | 22c | 122.73$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Yes | 32c | 120$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf908…0aafbacked No | 55c | 109.09$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.09 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +4.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 43c | 107.72$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.32 | 167 | 46.7%78 W · 89 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Yes | 43c | 104.8$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b5…fd79backed No | 59c | 101.69$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.69 | 185 | 56.2%104 W · 81 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad8…5004backed No | 59c | 101.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.51 | 188 | 55.3%104 W · 84 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41c5…0b24backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -7.2wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x300b…f636backed No | 56c | 91.84$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.41 | 233 | 57.9%135 W · 98 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91bc…28d6backed No | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 197 | 54.8%108 W · 89 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…189abacked Yes | 39c | 67.36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 238 | 54.2%129 W · 109 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…95e3backed Yes | 39c | 67.36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 267 | 52.8%141 W · 126 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbf…79c3backed Yes | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 29c | 59.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf9…229ebacked Yes | 41c | 49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Yes | 41c | 46.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…3e98backed No | 60c | 41.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 257 | 48.2%124 W · 133 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed No | 64c | 39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb1…8436backed No | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 276 | 44.9%124 W · 152 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0477…631cbacked No | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 171 | 55.6%95 W · 76 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb52e…cdcebacked No | 57c | 34.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -8.2wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4e6f…c043backed Yes | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Yes | 38c | 32.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 613 | 52.5%322 W · 291 L | +29.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa461…878abacked No | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 158 | 62.7%99 W · 59 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 191 | 43.5%83 W · 108 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3056…2b09backed No | 55c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Yes | 41c | 26.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 486 | 53.7%261 W · 225 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dae…8e07backed Yes | 41c | 24.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 44c | 22.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 237 | 50.6%120 W · 117 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgersthis page
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 4.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.