TailMyPicks
Menu
Market

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Tampa Bay Raysof Los Angeles Dodgers, Tampa Bay Rays
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,239
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,550

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,239 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5268…135dbacked Tampa Bay Rays62c1,521$941 inWon+$579.5811,65352.8%6,157 W · 5,496 L+214.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Los Angeles Dodgers24c1,317$316 inLost-$315.712,32846.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L-66.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed Los Angeles Dodgers33c936.55$309 inLost-$309.0688550.4%446 W · 439 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Tampa Bay Rays73c479.04$349 inWon+$129.752,17551.5%1,121 W · 1,054 L+54.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Tampa Bay Rays71c253.46$180 inWon+$73.244,42747.5%2,101 W · 2,326 L-77.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Los Angeles Dodgers34c223.31$76 inLost-$76.055,18254.6%2,829 W · 2,353 L+227.9wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Los Angeles Dodgers26c170.48$44 inLost-$43.788,68252.6%4,563 W · 4,119 L+505.1wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+4.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x51f4…3e21backed Los Angeles Dodgers34c147$50 inLost-$49.9825034.8%87 W · 163 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6add…6992backed Los Angeles Dodgers16c143.75$23 inLost-$231643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Los Angeles Dodgers32c133.99$43 inLost-$42.83,86642.3%1,636 W · 2,230 L+4.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb0b…62cdbacked Los Angeles Dodgers33c118.42$39 inLost-$39.0180243.3%347 W · 455 L-1.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Tampa Bay Rays67c111.62$75 inWon+$36.838,48447.9%4,062 W · 4,422 L+79.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Los Angeles Dodgers22c106.86$23 inLost-$22.991,92817.2%331 W · 1,597 L-320.9wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-64.3%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Los Angeles Dodgers30c105.54$31 inLost-$31.376,30948.2%3,044 W · 3,265 L+181.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf213…a627backed Los Angeles Dodgers31c100$31 inLost-$3168942.2%291 W · 398 L+18.7wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Tampa Bay Rays77c83.58$64 inWon+$19.286,13255.4%3,395 W · 2,737 L+346.5wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Tampa Bay Rays78c64.69$50 inWon+$14.242,99550.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L-36.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Los Angeles Dodgers16c62.79$10 inLost-$10.184,44545%2,001 W · 2,444 L+87.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c8d…4f5cbacked Los Angeles Dodgers34c59.52$20 inLost-$20.243545.7%16 W · 19 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+73.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe14a…62bebacked Los Angeles Dodgers31c51.87$16 inLost-$15.9115145.7%69 W · 82 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5cb1…6c8fbacked Los Angeles Dodgers27c51.51$14 inLost-$13.9127652.9%146 W · 130 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Tampa Bay Rays79c51$40 inWon+$10.711,73850.4%876 W · 862 L+57.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xea58…b635backed Los Angeles Dodgers25c50$12 inLost-$12.416734.7%58 W · 109 L-17.3wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-31.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3b81…b68bbacked Los Angeles Dodgers25c44.42$11 inLost-$10.887040%28 W · 42 L-7.0wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-29.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd663…5624backed Los Angeles Dodgers57c35.09$20 inLost-$20666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe88…67a8backed Tampa Bay Rays74c35$26 inWon+$9.197050.7%492 W · 478 L+13.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x29d8…e1b3backed Tampa Bay Rays67c28.99$19 inWon+$9.5744345.6%202 W · 241 L-10.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Tampa Bay Rays73c22.03$16 inWon+$65,86143.7%2,562 W · 3,299 L-190.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf390…bdbabacked Tampa Bay Rays69c21.74$15 inWon+$6.742365.2%15 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick65cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Tampa Bay Rays64c20.06$13 inWon+$7.223,23151.2%1,655 W · 1,576 L+148.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x976a…e8ecbacked Tampa Bay Rays65c19.25$13 inWon+$6.751,02250.6%517 W · 505 L+54.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+21.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.