Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on May 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd61bec02a1ba12926751dba7111da6b72f4f8f9d82444a21240cf0a323c824ce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,561
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,299
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,561 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a75…ff13backed Yes | 2c | 2,089$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 10c | 249.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 29c | 203.76$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.46 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 73c | 194.48$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.14 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2510…b91bbacked Yes | 31c | 190.2$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.9 | 85 | 45.9%39 W · 46 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a73…62afbacked Yes | 35c | 141.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69cc…e3f1backed Yes | 39c | 126.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 122.64$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.24 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 29c | 120.88$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 67c | 111.99$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.77 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 70c | 110.8$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.74 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 31c | 102.64$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.82 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc9…b10bbacked Yes | 40c | 100.74$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 46c | 100.47$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.6 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 67c | 100.19$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.2 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 31c | 100.08$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.62 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 75c | 100.08$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.08 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 60c | 99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 29c | 94.83$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 94.58$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.01 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe961…b090backed Yes | 31c | 86.75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.89 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 65c | 82.23$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.16 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 32c | 79.6$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 69c | 72.45$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51f6…9f18backed No | 70c | 71.39$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 146 | 59.6%87 W · 59 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e7…4a56backed Yes | 44c | 68.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9bd…b428backed Yes | 59c | 68.23$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46d3…2c20backed Yes | 26c | 68.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 166 | 27.7%46 W · 120 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 73c | 66.65$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 21c | 66.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 30c | 63.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 71c | 62.87$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.23 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfc…31b1backed Yes | 21c | 62.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 128 | 29.7%38 W · 90 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 43c | 55.87$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked Yes | 42c | 55.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 39c | 54.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 35c | 53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 61c | 52$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 36c | 49.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef40…b116backed Yes | 27c | 49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 149 | 26.2%39 W · 110 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 60c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.18 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 36c | 41.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 59c | 39.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 68c | 38.22$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71db…1700backed No | 52c | 34.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 72c | 34.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40fb…b7afbacked No | 75c | 33.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 65c | 32.35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a9…d211backed Yes | 42c | 32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +81.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 33c | 31.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 47c | 29.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c35…2babbacked Yes | 35c | 28.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 73c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 53c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2982…60ddbacked No | 55c | 26.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 45c | 25.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…bf12backed Yes | 39c | 25.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed Yes | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x862f…7e34backed Yes | 45c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 23.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 63c | 23.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 69c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c6…3eb8backed No | 67c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 74cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 69c | 21.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 54c | 18.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c0…a2d1backed No | 54c | 18.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +68.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 66c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 66c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 66c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82cc…d569backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 111 | 73%81 W · 30 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on May 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on May 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C or higher on May 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.