Europa Conference League · resolved market
Páfos FC vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd67ae0ba04998b67b7fd40486804097e392c7c5fa614a839f4999d9f27bd98ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,537
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,933
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,537 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe337…4ad6backed Under | 20c | 3,740$748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$748.08 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 32c | 3,652$1,174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,173.51 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8867…518cbacked Over | 19c | 2,262$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,832.37 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Over | 15c | 1,375$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,168.75 | 381 | 44.1%168 W · 213 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 15c | 1,026$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$868.98 | 1,039 | 50%520 W · 519 L | +26.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 21c | 904.09$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$713.59 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 17c | 870.83$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$722.58 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3713…96c6backed Under | 74c | 410$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +164.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3171…b991backed Over | 79c | 381.99$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.99 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c99…8b23backed Over | 61c | 327.87$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.87 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xded4…1e6dbacked Under | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 15c | 301.41$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.2 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 15c | 285$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.25 | 153 | 52.9%81 W · 72 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…997ebacked Under | 21c | 280.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.01 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Over | 16c | 275.74$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.74 | 187 | 32.1%60 W · 127 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Over | 29c | 227.64$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.98 | 973 | 46%448 W · 525 L | -4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Under | 33c | 109$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.93 | 535 | 64.7%346 W · 189 L | +29.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 36c | 107.06$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.05 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 34c | 96.53$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.57 | 852 | 60.9%519 W · 333 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 29c | 64.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 580 | 61.9%359 W · 221 L | +22.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 23c | 63.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 702 | 39.3%276 W · 426 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 67c | 48.42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 23c | 44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 453 | 48.3%219 W · 234 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked Under | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 88 | 69.3%61 W · 27 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x453d…2dbabacked Under | 33c | 39.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa991…0935backed Over | 71c | 34.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 40 | 82.5%33 W · 7 L | +11.3wins | +0.28per pick | 54cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 62c | 32.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | -6.8wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4993…553fbacked Under | 78c | 31.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 147 | 67.3%99 W · 48 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Over | 67c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 130 | 67.7%88 W · 42 L | +12.8wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x37b0…799fbacked Under | 79c | 20.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 68 | 58.8%40 W · 28 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ceb…4716backed Over | 65c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Páfos FC vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: O/U 4.5this page
- Páfos FC vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Páfos FC vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Páfos FC vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Páfos FC vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Páfos FC vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: O/U 0.5Over won
- Páfos FC vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: O/U 1.5Over won
- Páfos FC vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: O/U 2.5Over won
- Páfos FC vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: O/U 3.5Over won
- Páfos FC vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: O/U 5.5Over won
- Páfos FC vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: Páfos FC O/U 2.5Over won
- Páfos FC vs. FC Red Bull Salzburg: Team to AdvanceFC Red Bull Salzburg won
- Spread: FC Red Bull Salzburg (-1.5)Páfos FC won
- Spread: FC Red Bull Salzburg (-2.5)Páfos FC won
- Spread: Páfos FC (-1.5)FC Red Bull Salzburg won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.