Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd67c6ef82894a3d5172dffafe154e8ee803714a1fe23f8a5805cff5ff5c58f93
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,392
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,943
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,392 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3016…54e9backed Yes | 52c | 367.62$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.16 | 136 | 14.7%20 W · 116 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 79c | 296.88$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.3 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 13c | 248.52$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.74 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 48c | 215.62$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.12 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 39c | 171.19$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.99 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 57c | 167$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.58 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 45c | 133.77$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.95 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 50c | 130$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.12 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 51c | 123.63$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.56 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 46c | 120$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.57 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedba…002dbacked No | 67c | 111.71$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.29 | 96 | 79.2%76 W · 20 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 51c | 110.59$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.02 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 62c | 107.14$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.31 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 51c | 105.39$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.15 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 36c | 103.42$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 50c | 101$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.76 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x818b…1646backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3728…a76dbacked Yes | 40c | 99.42$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.52 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 48c | 97.72$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.46 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 43c | 97.1$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.52 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b08…ab3ebacked Yes | 42c | 86.69$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.56 | 116 | 50%58 W · 58 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…48d9backed No | 58c | 85.73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.73 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 48c | 81.85$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.83 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 49c | 81.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.05 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 48c | 80.08$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.69 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x410f…57febacked No | 23c | 79.17$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.96 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked No | 68c | 75.56$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.33 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 57c | 75$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.49 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 51c | 74.09$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.44 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 48c | 73.63$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.04 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 32c | 73.14$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.84 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 52c | 72.87$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.77 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 51c | 72.56$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.57 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 53c | 70.22$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.04 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 20c | 68.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 50c | 63.73$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 42c | 62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 43c | 57.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 50c | 56.25$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 36c | 55.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 63c | 55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.7 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 48c | 52.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.49 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe05b…6d6ebacked Yes | 49c | 50.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 35c | 50.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 43c | 49.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 49c | 49.25$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.12 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 37c | 48.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 59c | 44.12$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1da4…e65cbacked Yes | 60c | 42.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.43 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3e…79debacked No | 64c | 41.74$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 44c | 40.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc67e…8929backed Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 54c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 45c | 39.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 49c | 37.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 66c | 37.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 42c | 36.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 51c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd165…b94cbacked Yes | 44c | 34.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 51c | 34.23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 34c | 34.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 36c | 33.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 50c | 31.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x417b…236ebacked Yes | 41c | 31.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 56c | 30.09$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.24 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 57c | 30.02$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce9a…8ea6backed No | 65c | 29.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 188 | 78.2%147 W · 41 L | +19.4wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 51c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.82 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked Yes | 45c | 27.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed No | 58c | 25.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 48c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 51c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 64c | 22.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked Yes | 46c | 21.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 212 | 72.6%154 W · 58 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 57c | 20.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…cdd9backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.24per pick | 43cpaid | -47%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cc…2a5ebacked No | 72c | 17.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -12.1wins | -0.24per pick | 68cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x804b…b090backed No | 69c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 183 | 65.6%120 W · 63 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8023…cfd4backed No | 79c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C or higher on June 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.