Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c0e73c5a75578bf4511bfab3fb89a0b5377de3951d6101b2ee256163ba6c000
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,696
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,257
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,696 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x103e…78b5backed Yes | 44c | 426.77$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.32 | 161 | 34.2%55 W · 106 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 45c | 285.87$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.59 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 79c | 260.09$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.77 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 30c | 237.19$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.16 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 36c | 170.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.43 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 60c | 167$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.73 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 34c | 159.91$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.08 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 36c | 158.59$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.2 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 15c | 152.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 55c | 146.77$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.37 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ff…6ab4backed Yes | 69c | 145.53$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.53 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 35c | 120.72$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.47 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 48c | 111$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.64 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 27c | 97.07$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.95 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 50c | 89.91$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 52c | 88.38$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.14 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 59c | 72.56$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.62 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 68c | 67$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.56 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked Yes | 37c | 65.65$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.59 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 53c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 74c | 48.43$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 25c | 42.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d94…f7b2backed Yes | 38c | 40.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +209.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…3ee2backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.02 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 32c | 39.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 35c | 38.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.07 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 68c | 38.32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…3afcbacked Yes | 36c | 35.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.61 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 64c | 35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 57c | 33.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 69c | 32.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 62c | 31.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked No | 47c | 31.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc55…838fbacked No | 65c | 30.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 66c | 30.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 30.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 64c | 26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 62c | 25.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 43c | 25.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…ae8dbacked Yes | 59c | 25.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | +28.7wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 25.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 64c | 24.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 42c | 23.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 68c | 22.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 68c | 22.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 62c | 21.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 69c | 21.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 74c | 21.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 72c | 20.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50f4…b9ebbacked Yes | 66c | 20.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 61c | 19.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 67c | 18.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked No | 62c | 17.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 212 | 72.6%154 W · 58 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 65c | 16.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 62c | 16.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 67c | 14.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59ad…0cf2backed No | 74c | 14.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | -7.0wins | -0.10per pick | 72cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 77c | 13.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C or higher on June 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.