NBA · resolved market
NBA Finals G4: Will SGA score 34+ points against the Pacers?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd6ba5b53f1160f1a34b51745fec751b21994c914012f84d6f2c56c164dc74b59
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,664
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,075
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,664 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Yes | 53c | 15,861$8,347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,513.07 | 202 | 48%97 W · 105 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 47c | 9,600$4,512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,512.01 | 701 | 47.8%335 W · 366 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked No | 48c | 5,866$2,816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,815.68 | 168 | 44%74 W · 94 L | -11.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -10%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 51c | 787$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.63 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed No | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc974…9bcbbacked No | 52c | 485.34$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed No | 49c | 400$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.69 | 768 | 50.3%386 W · 382 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec01…6592backed Yes | 53c | 295.67$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.76 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Yes | 46c | 274$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.01 | 401 | 33.4%134 W · 267 L | +27.0wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2728…4f96backed Yes | 53c | 189.43$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.43 | 130 | 37.7%49 W · 81 L | -14.4wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9e…547dbacked No | 48c | 149.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1292…e678backed No | 75c | 145$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.25 | 181 | 44.2%80 W · 101 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8b…c713backed Yes | 51c | 142.7$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…1806backed Yes | 54c | 101.85$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.85 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…7fe9backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a41…069abacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb678…f74dbacked Yes | 25c | 95$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.25 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c20…0a7ebacked Yes | 52c | 93.27$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.77 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe408…232bbacked No | 52c | 75$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.25 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked Yes | 49c | 74.55$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.13 | 482 | 55%265 W · 217 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 52c | 70$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 60 | 25%15 W · 45 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…a8e7backed No | 51c | 64.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 317 | 48.9%155 W · 162 L | -12.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Yes | 41c | 55.36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d7…94e9backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Yes | 52c | 46.15$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.15 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f87…4919backed No | 54c | 46.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908d…1d99backed No | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 76 | 40.8%31 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 574 | 44.1%253 W · 321 L | -20.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9efd…1880backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.