MLB · resolved market
Red Sox vs. Blue Jays
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7185386e8f007fdf3348d2fd3ea7982f8ec63a7faf9c84c7533fea2c9f4e8bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Blue Jaysof Red Sox, Blue Jays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,343
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,100
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,343 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Red Sox | 53c | 24,736$13,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,019.11 | 279 | 48.4%135 W · 144 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked Blue Jays | 47c | 15,717$7,387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,330.01 | 245 | 53.5%131 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f2…5495backed Red Sox | 56c | 8,614$4,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,800 | 97 | 59.8%58 W · 39 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Blue Jays | 48c | 2,956$1,409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,546.98 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…af0abacked Blue Jays | 51c | 2,953$1,506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,447.11 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd7…cd86backed Red Sox | 52c | 2,140$1,113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,113 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…ddfabacked Blue Jays | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040 | 374 | 46.8%175 W · 199 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Blue Jays | 45c | 1,756$794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$962.37 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Blue Jays | 47c | 1,284$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$674.25 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed Blue Jays | 50c | 1,200$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Blue Jays | 43c | 1,089$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620.73 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Blue Jays | 49c | 1,039$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.8 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Red Sox | 53c | 1,033$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.01 | 867 | 51.8%449 W · 418 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Blue Jays | 50c | 1,009$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.66 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…dcd3backed Red Sox | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580 | 172 | 39.5%68 W · 104 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Red Sox | 52c | 999.99$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.99 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Blue Jays | 49c | 942$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.42 | 277 | 51.3%142 W · 135 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Blue Jays | 48c | 899.98$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.99 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Blue Jays | 48c | 780.2$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.7 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fae…3488backed Blue Jays | 57c | 529.42$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.54 | 183 | 49.2%90 W · 93 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…ccbdbacked Red Sox | 52c | 480.77$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Red Sox | 70c | 451.43$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked Blue Jays | 48c | 420$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.86 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Blue Jays | 49c | 410$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.1 | 917 | 49.9%458 W · 459 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Blue Jays | 48c | 332$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.64 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Blue Jays | 39c | 272.12$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.11 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Red Sox | 49c | 263.45$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.26 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Blue Jays | 48c | 231.55$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.4 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x664b…8509backed Blue Jays | 48c | 222$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.44 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Blue Jays | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Blue Jays | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Red Sox | 63c | 202.08$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.49 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91f0…d9a9backed Red Sox | 53c | 189.15$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cb…b857backed Blue Jays | 48c | 166$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.32 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeeee…ccb7backed Red Sox | 51c | 137$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.87 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Red Sox | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 508 | 52.6%267 W · 241 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Blue Jays | 48c | 83$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.16 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Blue Jays | 40c | 65$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.69 | 475 | 4.4%21 W · 454 L | -20.9wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Blue Jays | 36c | 63.86$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.57 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf391…73c3backed Blue Jays | 48c | 41.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.44 | 295 | 52.2%154 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Blue Jays | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c75…154abacked Blue Jays | 51c | 37.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Red Sox | 52c | 35.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Red Sox | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 203 | 67%136 W · 67 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d2…317bbacked Blue Jays | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x459e…9931backed Red Sox | 65c | 15.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.