F1 · resolved market
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Mexican Grand Prix?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd724d420c4ad4ab9b670c856bc27e828aa4b6c159640936ba9b4b910625180ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,524
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,145
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,524 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d4f…ce53backed Yes | 1c | 3,400$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08df…8265backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe411…04c5backed No | 80c | 2,087$1,666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.98 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe42e…8d89backed Yes | 15c | 1,726$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee0c…0a49backed Yes | 14c | 1,407$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.92 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf929…5407backed Yes | 22c | 1,388$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb9…f6b3backed Yes | 2c | 1,196$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc44c…d797backed Yes | 1c | 1,080$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3f…e00bbacked Yes | 16c | 1,016$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.08 | 67 | 32.8%22 W · 45 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…cf15backed Yes | 2c | 973.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 64 | 10.9%7 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 16c | 948.11$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.23 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 12c | 942$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.34 | 86 | 22.1%19 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x612f…aa53backed Yes | 18c | 900$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b70…6e9fbacked Yes | 3c | 507.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26a9…f6b7backed Yes | 21c | 325$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe390…1deabacked Yes | 3c | 311.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5b…5030backed Yes | 21c | 215.13$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.88 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +73%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 5c | 213$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7b…265ebacked Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7259…a6c4backed Yes | 13c | 192$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51d9…cb1abacked Yes | 20c | 154$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb166…7ba1backed No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d1…dabdbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 28cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd072…f8b6backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb758…dd73backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96c9…2d04backed Yes | 24c | 83.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9833…3f04backed Yes | 25c | 81.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a17…19a1backed Yes | 23c | 56.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e37…03d2backed No | 77c | 51.74$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +7.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa7…fb5dbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e5…8e79backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7544…060fbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f43…4914backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 24cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 77c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Mexican Grand Prix?this page
- Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli win the 2025 F1 Mexican Grand Prix?No won
- Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 Mexican Grand Prix?No won
- Will George Russell win the 2025 F1 Mexican Grand Prix?No won
- Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Mexican Grand Prix?Yes won
- Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 F1 Mexican Grand Prix?No won
- Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Mexican Grand Prix?No won
- Will Oliver Bearman win the 2025 F1 Mexican Grand Prix?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.