TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Knicks vs. Thunder: 1H Moneyline

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Thunderof Knicks, Thunder
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,827
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,341

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,827 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x507e…beaebacked Thunder71c1,009$719 inWon+$289.745,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4835…8f59backed Knicks34c500.43$170 inLost-$17028657.3%164 W · 122 L+1.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21f5…c161backed Knicks33c344.57$112 inLost-$11211440.4%46 W · 68 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+21.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x692e…ee58backed Knicks33c304.85$100 inLost-$10017428.2%49 W · 125 L-10.9wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-31.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfd08…0635backed Thunder68c260$177 inWon+$83.247359.2%280 W · 193 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b44…d8debacked Knicks17c139.25$24 inLost-$23.9476653.5%410 W · 356 L+65.5wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+15.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8561…337bbacked Knicks17c122.22$21 inLost-$213141.9%13 W · 18 L+2.8wins+0.09per pick33cpaid+2.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Knicks15c94.24$14 inLost-$14.481,17050.3%588 W · 582 L+46.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Thunder66c86.89$57 inWon+$29.542,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf292…1cc7backed Knicks35c86.84$30 inLost-$3012644.4%56 W · 70 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4980…57febacked Knicks32c80.43$25 inLost-$25.3910245.1%46 W · 56 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb60c…8e81backed Knicks27c78.52$21 inLost-$212133.3%7 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-11.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1608…eeb8backed Thunder69c68.74$47 inWon+$21.533773%27 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick72cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8165…97b8backed Knicks31c65.45$20 inLost-$203342.4%14 W · 19 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-27.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc1a8…dab3backed Thunder76c50.14$38 inWon+$12.031770.6%12 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+22.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Thunder73c41.64$30 inWon+$11.241,75848.7%856 W · 902 L+28.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4488…579cbacked Thunder69c40.86$28 inWon+$12.6777549.2%381 W · 394 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbf0…4046backed Thunder68c40$27 inWon+$12.88164.2%52 W · 29 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick61cpaid0%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b4a…d477backed Thunder77c38.29$29 inWon+$8.7910560%63 W · 42 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x14e4…eabbbacked Knicks31c33$10 inLost-$10.2393145.8%426 W · 505 L-25.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x86da…401cbacked Knicks33c32.68$11 inLost-$10.676544.6%29 W · 36 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8482…3f7abacked Thunder70c29.99$21 inWon+$960049.8%299 W · 301 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd45…f2aabacked Thunder68c20$14 inWon+$6.41850%9 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1fc…7cc1backed Thunder73c19$14 inWon+$5.0614471.5%103 W · 41 L+22.1wins+0.15per pick56cpaid+25%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.