Commodities · resolved market
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on April 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7b65b6273419d244ab891dd26f14048cca96def73567edc44b196529b82325a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Downof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,760
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,749
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,760 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbab6…50a2backed Down | 50c | 2,640$1,315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,324.58 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2651…3471backed Up | 6c | 1,088$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.48 | 306 | 43.5%133 W · 173 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Up | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 952 | 40.1%382 W · 570 L | -71.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -32%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x385e…3896backed Up | 49c | 600$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Up | 22c | 314.06$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.53 | 1,060 | 35%371 W · 689 L | -92.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ea…b603backed Up | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…8f66backed Up | 22c | 193$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.65 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Up | 21c | 162.42$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.11 | 198 | 7.1%14 W · 184 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Down | 77c | 156$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.32 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad31…5217backed Up | 30c | 120$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f90…4e02backed Up | 20c | 114.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28c0…b776backed Up | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.5wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd5eb…9120backed Up | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0bc…5601backed Down | 66c | 97.29$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.01 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…aff0backed Up | 34c | 94.72$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeae9…523fbacked Up | 22c | 93.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Up | 19c | 84.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5323…8039backed Up | 15c | 83.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd8…1de3backed Up | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17a2…5986backed Up | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa033…6a77backed Up | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0919…a292backed Up | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc6…36f2backed Down | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe29c…fc4fbacked Up | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bae…b9c9backed Up | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8284…7769backed Up | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe950…e3b8backed Up | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf73…af7fbacked Up | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x742e…91b6backed Up | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b8…f5e0backed Up | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9db6…c85abacked Up | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59fc…38aabacked Up | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc348…2a83backed Down | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9693…bc1cbacked Down | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 71cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa55c…b4ebbacked Up | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40f8…c9ecbacked Down | 70c | 48.8$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e45…1efbbacked Down | 67c | 45.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9678…ef8dbacked Up | 36c | 37.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae46…a663backed Up | 37c | 37.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa20…fd0dbacked Up | 36c | 37.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 38cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Down | 74c | 23.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.