MLB · resolved market
New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7b6ed6bdad7aa62803029e4e920c2a0aa20b5a36dd38617b2921155a2928399
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $75,443
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $75,531
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,443 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Over | 49c | 52,934$25,938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,996.2 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e77…8c33backed Under | 51c | 50,000$25,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,500 | 283 | 50.9%144 W · 139 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 47c | 12,826$6,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,821.1 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 55c | 9,083$4,961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,961.36 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under | 52c | 7,064$3,664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,664.25 | 321 | 52%167 W · 154 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec2…bd08backed Over | 49c | 1,941$951 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$989.91 | 1,137 | 42.6%484 W · 653 L | +10.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Under | 51c | 1,500$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 43c | 1,484$644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$839.56 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 51c | 989.35$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.57 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Under | 51c | 972.71$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.08 | 360 | 48.6%175 W · 185 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 51c | 856.84$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.99 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc28…ede2backed Under | 33c | 646.32$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Over | 48c | 625$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 46c | 511.13$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.01 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Under | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 96 | 55.2%53 W · 43 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 49c | 219.9$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.15 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 49c | 197.08$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.51 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 46c | 181$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.74 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57cc…0fa7backed Over | 48c | 177$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.04 | 224 | 48.7%109 W · 115 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Over | 49c | 157$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.07 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 49c | 137$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.87 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 46c | 132$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.28 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 56c | 126.27$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.52 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Under | 51c | 120$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 50c | 118$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Over | 43c | 116.4$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.4 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 50c | 102.92$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.86 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 49c | 90$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Over | 42c | 90$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.2 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 49c | 89.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.89 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 49c | 87.11$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.37 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Over | 45c | 84.44$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.44 | 313 | 43.5%136 W · 177 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Under | 56c | 65$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 167 | 53.9%90 W · 77 L | +10.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 46c | 47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.38 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Over | 50c | 43.26$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.63 | 170 | 47.1%80 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Under | 49c | 41.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 49c | 40.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd6…81f6backed Under | 50c | 39.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 48c | 37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.24 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 50c | 35.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Over | 49c | 31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 392 | 50.3%197 W · 195 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x409d…8f47backed Over | 50c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfa…2235backed Over | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab8b…24ffbacked Under | 50c | 29.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 248 | 43.5%108 W · 140 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 49c | 28.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c99…d91abacked Over | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | -10.5wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2abe…6e2dbacked Over | 49c | 22.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Under | 52c | 19.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5this page
- New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay RaysNew York Yankees won
- New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 13.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 14.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 15.5Over won
- New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 16.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-6.5)New York Yankees won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)New York Yankees won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay RaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.