Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on August 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7c1544f79f2125c7c21f44de133744bba461aca2404f9199b1d1e4c9725b388
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,405
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,435
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,405 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 62c | 1,231$769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.86 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 31c | 590.86$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.17 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 65c | 423.56$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.58 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf030…4b59backed Yes | 33c | 349.71$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.34 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…c3cbbacked No | 54c | 287.84$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.44 | 142 | 22.5%32 W · 110 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 36c | 207.08$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.99 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 39c | 200$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 61c | 195.66$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.02 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 61c | 190$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.44 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 26c | 161.51$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.52 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 61c | 144.08$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.99 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 25c | 109.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 104.78$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.52 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee2d…6968backed Yes | 37c | 104.76$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.73 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0de…3b38backed No | 71c | 103.53$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.2 | 124 | 73.4%91 W · 33 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed No | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 170 | 28.8%49 W · 121 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 66c | 95.89$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.45 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 29c | 94.07$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.19 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 30c | 81.25$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.88 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 31c | 80.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 61c | 80$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.72 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 33c | 79.98$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.49 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 37c | 79.38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.01 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 65c | 77.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.33 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 61c | 68.47$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.09 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5201…34c3backed No | 44c | 67.18$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 30c | 55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 26c | 55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.7 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 56c | 54.87$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.22 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 37c | 51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.13 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.58 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 36c | 48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.72 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6672…47e4backed Yes | 66c | 45.89$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.78 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 49c | 45.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 33c | 45.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.69 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa164…1405backed Yes | 30c | 45.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.77 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked No | 65c | 44.72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.11 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 32c | 40.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.53 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd50d…2557backed Yes | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 59c | 38.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 65c | 37.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2184…d271backed No | 69c | 35.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 48c | 32.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 38c | 31.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.39 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 195 | 41.5%81 W · 114 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 65c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 50c | 29.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 74c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked No | 73c | 24.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 55c | 23.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabff…6b73backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 74c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 63c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on August 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on August 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.