CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: magic vs NIP - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7d585643aadab9e0b82b3fd77cba1a9dcf8a5bb1ce7c6c61a8672ac607133c7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- magicof magic, NIP
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,182
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,951
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,182 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbaf…f5d1backed NIP | 28c | 1,806$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.42 | 610 | 34.3%209 W · 401 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9b…6df8backed NIP | 11c | 1,649$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.23 | 558 | 45.7%255 W · 303 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x196b…4151backed NIP | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 108 | 0.9%1 W · 107 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x324c…93d9backed NIP | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 215 | 0.9%2 W · 213 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked NIP | 48c | 1,279$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.71 | 3,225 | 51.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L | +88.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed NIP | 19c | 1,030$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 500 | 50.6%253 W · 247 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a05…cd14backed NIP | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 119 | 0.8%1 W · 118 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -37%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked NIP | 16c | 961.09$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.75 | 4,933 | 37.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L | -249.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x300b…8e51backed NIP | 13c | 750$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 417 | 16.5%69 W · 348 L | -12.1wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb726…4d2bbacked magic | 43c | 712.09$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.2 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f93…bffabacked magic | 74c | 695$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.9 | 789 | 63.8%503 W · 286 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a70…0519backed magic | 78c | 607.79$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.71 | 388 | 35.6%138 W · 250 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e2…d472backed NIP | 33c | 581.94$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.86 | 266 | 24.4%65 W · 201 L | -26.9wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1c5e…269bbacked magic | 50c | 574$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287 | 420 | 50%210 W · 210 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7f…7603backed NIP | 50c | 574$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -4.4wins | -0.26per pick | 50cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed NIP | 5c | 518.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 2,626 | 30.9%812 W · 1,814 L | -105.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd46e…d10dbacked NIP | 40c | 487.5$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 530 | 34.7%184 W · 346 L | -32.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x568d…87d0backed NIP | 3c | 479.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 289 | 43.6%126 W · 163 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee80…f34ebacked magic | 42c | 476.19$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.19 | 354 | 60.7%215 W · 139 L | +10.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed magic | 63c | 428.26$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.81 | 4,228 | 49.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L | +59.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…3c43backed magic | 55c | 422.38$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.38 | 290 | 52.4%152 W · 138 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed magic | 55c | 397$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.5 | 5,287 | 31.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L | -383.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeecd…4fefbacked magic | 75c | 380.35$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.57 | 378 | 59.5%225 W · 153 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…b3a6backed NIP | 27c | 372.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d49…7cc0backed magic | 64c | 340.77$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.68 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked magic | 78c | 325.29$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.14 | 4,691 | 43.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L | -83.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb378…e4c0backed NIP | 13c | 284.39$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.46 | 383 | 12.8%49 W · 334 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked NIP | 34c | 283.12$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.29 | 2,473 | 34.6%855 W · 1,618 L | -188.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2418…66c8backed NIP | 37c | 258.29$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.57 | 608 | 53.3%324 W · 284 L | +20.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76f1…f655backed NIP | 38c | 242.04$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.78 | 917 | 43.7%401 W · 516 L | -35.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed NIP | 21c | 237.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.36 | 2,774 | 24.5%681 W · 2,093 L | -295.8wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed NIP | 18c | 225.43$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.58 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ddd…1ad3backed NIP | 47c | 224.76$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.14 | 159 | 54.1%86 W · 73 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f57…3e7abacked magic | 73c | 206.55$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.55 | 656 | 62.3%409 W · 247 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…6eacbacked magic | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +22.4wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…b135backed NIP | 8c | 170$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 138 | 35.5%49 W · 89 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ee…0267backed magic | 52c | 141.02$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.02 | 180 | 54.4%98 W · 82 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c2…45b2backed NIP | 17c | 136$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 401 | 41.6%167 W · 234 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked NIP | 23c | 121.82$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 3,910 | 36.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L | -197.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…6471backed magic | 54c | 120$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 427 | 57.8%247 W · 180 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b2…70f0backed NIP | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 428 | 31.3%134 W · 294 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd2…648cbacked NIP | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82dc…5700backed magic | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.67 | 870 | 47.9%417 W · 453 L | +15.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5489…4ceebacked NIP | 26c | 94.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked magic | 62c | 93.56$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 1,256 | 46.7%587 W · 669 L | +17.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6277…5a3fbacked NIP | 46c | 86.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 635 | 41.9%266 W · 369 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb57f…0c96backed NIP | 54c | 86.76$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.17 | 215 | 45.6%98 W · 117 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6385…2afabacked NIP | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 415 | 16.6%69 W · 346 L | -36.5wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe232…6ceabacked NIP | 30c | 66.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 68 | 11.8%8 W · 60 L | -6.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -46%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x294e…4982backed magic | 54c | 56.32$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.72 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab6…4880backed magic | 54c | 55.44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.44 | 593 | 54.8%325 W · 268 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked magic | 67c | 53.2$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.54 | 2,604 | 52.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L | +98.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca08…08bdbacked NIP | 49c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 412 | 50.2%207 W · 205 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b26…57e9backed NIP | 55c | 49.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 1,485 | 58%862 W · 623 L | +66.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9649…ebd1backed magic | 68c | 49.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6e…be00backed magic | 45c | 47.05$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.88 | 416 | 49.8%207 W · 209 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe564…221abacked NIP | 54c | 46.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,078 | 32%345 W · 733 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked magic | 45c | 40.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.61 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc2…8b9bbacked NIP | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 158 | 54.4%86 W · 72 L | -9.3wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x420b…965bbacked magic | 47c | 39.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.19 | 582 | 54.3%316 W · 266 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked NIP | 44c | 31.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 675 | 47.3%319 W · 356 L | -9.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed magic | 46c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 809 | 42.3%342 W · 467 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked magic | 47c | 24.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.84 | 445 | 63.8%284 W · 161 L | +19.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed NIP | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1,848 | 47.6%879 W · 969 L | -55.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf21d…2e9abacked magic | 79c | 19.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 187 | 59.4%111 W · 76 L | +15.1wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb849…bce6backed magic | 73c | 18.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 82 | 22%18 W · 64 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: magic vs NIP - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: magic vs NIP (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffsmagic won
- Counter-Strike: magic vs NIP - Map 2 Winnermagic won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.