La Liga · resolved market
Villarreal CF vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7f508d7e2b71f3c00b8de0319dfb138cb9ff900cde276f8c2a17a5d3ced6bba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,211
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,312
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,211 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e1a…d5a3backed Under | 0c | 14,317$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee4…276fbacked Under | 71c | 5,252$3,724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,723.57 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 32c | 3,191$1,031 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,160.18 | 4,729 | 47.1%2,225 W · 2,504 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 29c | 2,875$834 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,041.5 | 908 | 43.6%396 W · 512 L | -9.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…651bbacked Over | 73c | 762.05$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.69 | 601 | 47.9%288 W · 313 L | +50.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3e99…e794backed Under | 71c | 700$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d37…5b73backed Under | 75c | 600.36$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 26c | 542.37$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.1 | 3,444 | 43%1,482 W · 1,962 L | +31.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2e…9e01backed Under | 55c | 509.09$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +41%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 24c | 313.83$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.36 | 1,651 | 43.9%724 W · 927 L | -21.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x197b…818ebacked Under | 68c | 300$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3d…189dbacked Under | 55c | 180.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Under | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x832c…c46ebacked Over | 30c | 162.35$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.33 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82c0…02fdbacked Over | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.29 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf292…1cc7backed Over | 31c | 145.29$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.25 | 148 | 50.7%75 W · 73 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Under | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 231 | 52.8%122 W · 109 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b8…39c3backed Under | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 70c | 131$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.7 | 351 | 48.4%170 W · 181 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked Under | 37c | 117$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.09 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22d3…05c7backed Under | 71c | 113.99$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Under | 54c | 102$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.18 | 129 | 44.2%57 W · 72 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Over | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 191 | 30.4%58 W · 133 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b79…6a80backed Under | 72c | 95$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.65 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.21per pick | 65cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 168 | 65.5%110 W · 58 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 63c | 92$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.04 | 130 | 52.3%68 W · 62 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20c7…50c9backed Under | 71c | 70.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.35 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ba…960fbacked Under | 69c | 65.22$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 29c | 63$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.73 | 1,559 | 51.6%804 W · 755 L | -9.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d97…7d3bbacked Over | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffaa…9435backed Over | 32c | 61.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ea…c6f9backed Over | 32c | 60.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +107.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3d…299cbacked Over | 32c | 58.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.66 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +167.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb19f…b23ebacked Over | 32c | 58.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.55 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +140.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 27c | 57.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 836 | 40%334 W · 502 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb359…c49cbacked Over | 32c | 52.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16bc…5325backed Over | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +201.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Over | 56c | 43.22$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.17 | 176 | 48.3%85 W · 91 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cb…4593backed Under | 72c | 41.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +201.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 153 | 44.4%68 W · 85 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f03…dc32backed Over | 27c | 40.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.74 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Over | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 195 | 44.1%86 W · 109 L | +13.7wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 62c | 35.86$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 31c | 35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 96 | 37.5%36 W · 60 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51d2…1462backed Over | 46c | 34.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.78 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4786…ff95backed Under | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2eae…a25fbacked Under | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 139 | 36%50 W · 89 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf7…4307backed Under | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5562…3b41backed Under | 54c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0216…0844backed Under | 69c | 22.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b4e…f997backed Under | 69c | 21.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64c7…ffd7backed Under | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1046…7041backed Under | 69c | 20.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a5…ad6fbacked Under | 69c | 20.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc8…a337backed Under | 69c | 20.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7924backed Under | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 432 | 55.6%240 W · 192 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5936…60fdbacked Under | 71c | 19.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x232e…fc46backed Under | 69c | 19.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 70cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d4…bc50backed Under | 69c | 18.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.2wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x389f…afbcbacked Under | 69c | 18.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2081…daffbacked Under | 69c | 18.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc057…f545backed Under | 69c | 18.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf219…3776backed Under | 69c | 18.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a45…f9d9backed Under | 69c | 17.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d8…19c5backed Under | 71c | 16.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306f…5c35backed Under | 69c | 16.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Villarreal CF vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: O/U 3.5this page
- Spread: RCD Espanyol de Barcelona (-1.5)Villarreal CF won
- Spread: RCD Espanyol de Barcelona (-2.5)Villarreal CF won
- Spread: Villarreal CF (-1.5)Villarreal CF won
- Spread: Villarreal CF (-2.5)Villarreal CF won
- Villarreal CF vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Villarreal CF vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: O/U 1.5Over won
- Villarreal CF vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: O/U 2.5Over won
- Villarreal CF vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.