Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on July 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd808284bde184613b0a4066d824fdde494c01834a95da655690fada5bdb52efd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,110
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,624
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,110 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 24c | 767.08$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.73 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 19c | 416.78$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.69 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 22c | 343.64$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.62 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 36c | 342.06$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.91 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 18c | 307.88$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.65 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fb…182cbacked Yes | 63c | 287.19$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.11 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 78c | 273.4$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.22 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 24c | 208$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 15c | 203$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 24c | 173.38$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.45 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 16c | 165$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 17c | 149.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 57c | 116.32$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 15c | 100.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x71ec…e48cbacked Yes | 20c | 98.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 99 | 21.2%21 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked Yes | 27c | 97.21$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.43 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 36c | 93.17$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.83 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 60c | 85.46$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.81 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 73c | 76.46$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 44c | 74.74$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 18c | 72.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 28c | 69.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 23c | 65.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 76c | 65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 78c | 59.33$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35b6…caadbacked No | 58c | 54.18$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.58 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffc5…67a5backed No | 24c | 53.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.28 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5a…edf2backed Yes | 44c | 45.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…3b01backed No | 68c | 44.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb1…6644backed Yes | 24c | 44.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 49c | 42.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83fa…d3fbbacked Yes | 26c | 42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.23per pick | 31cpaid | -78%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 30.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 61c | 30.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc66c…7c32backed Yes | 63c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 80c | 22.45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 50c | 22.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6a…4614backed Yes | 71c | 22.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -11.5wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd372…04bebacked Yes | 47c | 21.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d89…c771backed Yes | 62c | 20.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 80c | 19.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.04 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 80c | 19.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 79c | 18.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 67c | 17.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.1 | 171 | 65.5%112 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…813abacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on July 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C or below on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on July 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on July 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.