Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on July 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x266c19c5fcafb67bc1485e884f6cdebf64036e87d2221ef481d4aaa315f472af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,154
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,143
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,154 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 7c | 1,180$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.54 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 35c | 569.06$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.79 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf75f…b458backed Yes | 75c | 363.62$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.81 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +6.1wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 42c | 302.08$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.78 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 63c | 273.4$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.42 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 62c | 171$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.42 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 28c | 164.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.37 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 41c | 146.97$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.97 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 62c | 145.37$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.8 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 65c | 144.47$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.34 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 37c | 137.61$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.5 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 29c | 124.97$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.18 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 54c | 114.15$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.84 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 42c | 113.14$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.62 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 36c | 113$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.82 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 23c | 108$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 27c | 107.51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74aa…2c3fbacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 57c | 95.78$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.97 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 29c | 92.45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.87 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 21c | 88.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 36c | 84.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.01 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 61c | 74.75$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.87 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 76c | 72.33$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.97 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 14c | 72.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 59c | 72.1$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.29 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 30c | 70.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5a…edf2backed Yes | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.77 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 64c | 68.85$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.76 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ec…710abacked No | 63c | 65.3$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.14 | 135 | 45.9%62 W · 73 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 39c | 64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 60c | 60.73$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.62 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 67c | 60$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 59c | 59.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 55c | 59.27$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.53 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c2…f88bbacked Yes | 54c | 58.6$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.87 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 34c | 58.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.48 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 60c | 56.77$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 26c | 47.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 28c | 42.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.27 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 25c | 42.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 53c | 41.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85ba…e33abacked Yes | 44c | 39.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.39 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 57c | 37.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 56c | 37.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…bac2backed Yes | 39c | 36.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb86b…aabfbacked Yes | 38c | 35.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.31 | 158 | 68.4%108 W · 50 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 41c | 35.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 62c | 35.05$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 62c | 35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 58c | 34.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…44c4backed Yes | 39c | 33.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 54c | 32.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b41…b5cebacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.7wins | -0.27per pick | 55cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71ec…e48cbacked No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 99 | 21.2%21 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 58c | 29.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 40c | 26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f37…1952backed No | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 61c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 65c | 22.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 61c | 20.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa109…7e42backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 110 | 68.2%75 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 59c | 19.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 53c | 19.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 62c | 19.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffe0…2133backed No | 62c | 17.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ece…1949backed No | 62c | 16.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 173 | 61.8%107 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1a…d5a3backed No | 62c | 16.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 71c | 15.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on July 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C or below on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on July 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.