Valorant · resolved market
Map Handicap: FNC (-1.5) vs Eternal Fire (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd8103c0277aafb8df545ddbc3a4179de792ae6bbe3c0ba6716d4b36bdbede3eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Eternal Fireof Fnatic, Eternal Fire
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,599
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,707
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,599 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Fnatic | 37c | 2,101$782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$782.24 | 223 | 46.6%104 W · 119 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Eternal Fire | 60c | 1,211$725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.68 | 565 | 51.2%289 W · 276 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Eternal Fire | 55c | 888$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.6 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…3250backed Eternal Fire | 63c | 793.65$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.65 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x489b…a6ecbacked Fnatic | 39c | 630$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.7 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b10…9659backed Eternal Fire | 61c | 600$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Eternal Fire | 63c | 476.19$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.19 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x253e…84e4backed Fnatic | 44c | 449.97$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.99 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa371…eaa5backed Fnatic | 45c | 448.89$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…3ca3backed Fnatic | 45c | 445$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.7 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09a6…73c7backed Fnatic | 47c | 427.98$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c1e…64d0backed Fnatic | 46c | 423.91$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.8wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -43%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x30c7…ac3bbacked Eternal Fire | 60c | 419.78$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.91 | 289 | 55.7%161 W · 128 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…5053backed Eternal Fire | 60c | 381.38$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.55 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked Eternal Fire | 53c | 313.03$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.12 | 125 | 50.4%63 W · 62 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ec…c574backed Eternal Fire | 62c | 290.32$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.32 | 348 | 57.5%200 W · 148 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed Eternal Fire | 54c | 258$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.68 | 634 | 47.9%304 W · 330 L | -13.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0698…b91dbacked Fnatic | 40c | 256$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.4 | 103 | 46.6%48 W · 55 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x355b…4fb7backed Fnatic | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3b…5fa5backed Eternal Fire | 62c | 225.81$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.81 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x009c…049bbacked Fnatic | 46c | 218.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75c1…22e4backed Fnatic | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -8.3wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0993…525fbacked Eternal Fire | 54c | 217.39$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +6.1wins | +0.17per pick | 51cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cb…f7dbbacked Eternal Fire | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 162 | 41.4%67 W · 95 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x223a…f30ebacked Eternal Fire | 63c | 197.82$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.19 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…2864backed Eternal Fire | 56c | 175.05$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.22 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc65…96c8backed Fnatic | 40c | 166.55$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.62 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80ac…6ac9backed Fnatic | 40c | 137.68$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf04…ad65backed Fnatic | 40c | 127.65$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.76 | 285 | 41.1%117 W · 168 L | -26.4wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcf60…a6f5backed Fnatic | 40c | 110$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 521 | 55.5%289 W · 232 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Eternal Fire | 58c | 88$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.96 | 264 | 50%132 W · 132 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Eternal Fire | 60c | 79.13$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Eternal Fire | 57c | 75.09$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.35 | 666 | 50.8%338 W · 328 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc1…3f1cbacked Eternal Fire | 56c | 74.61$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.83 | 200 | 51.5%103 W · 97 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcda…5e95backed Fnatic | 74c | 66.78$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.49 | 114 | 57%65 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160a…43d3backed Eternal Fire | 65c | 57.14$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee16…16a2backed Fnatic | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 179 | 48%86 W · 93 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1273…8eddbacked Eternal Fire | 62c | 51.64$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 65 | 61.5%40 W · 25 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5a…c420backed Fnatic | 41c | 47.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Fnatic | 43c | 46.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 168 | 39.3%66 W · 102 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…980abacked Fnatic | 38c | 36.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Fnatic | 38c | 29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 785 | 62.8%493 W · 292 L | +56.2wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe573…ae05backed Eternal Fire | 62c | 20.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Eternal Fire | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 492 | 55.3%272 W · 220 L | +23.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Eternal Fire | 77c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17ef…9a2cbacked Eternal Fire | 77c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb695…f967backed Eternal Fire | 63c | 15.95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: FNC (-1.5) vs Eternal Fire (+1.5)this page
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Fnatic (-2.5) vs Eternal Fire (+2.5)Eternal Fire won
- Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Fnatic (-3.5) vs Eternal Fire (+3.5)Eternal Fire won
- Valorant: Eternal Fire vs Fnatic (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group OmegaEternal Fire won
- Valorant: Eternal Fire vs Fnatic - Map 1 WinnerEternal Fire won
- Valorant: Eternal Fire vs Fnatic - Map 2 WinnerEternal Fire won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.