Tennis · resolved market
Jan-Lennard Struff vs. Daniil Medvedev: Total Sets O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd8368b041befa2c3dd5043f7faf87685131f9cbcabf4ac2a040676bb0c138df9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Under 3.5of Over 3.5, Under 3.5
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,296
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,304
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,296 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd4c3…60d9backed Over 3.5 | 57c | 2,643$1,513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,513 | 142 | 52.8%75 W · 67 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under 3.5 | 43c | 1,000$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570 | 1,510 | 37.7%569 W · 941 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Under 3.5 | 42c | 963.61$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558.89 | 1,149 | 41.3%474 W · 675 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f16…701dbacked Over 3.5 | 58c | 691.3$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 79 | 38%30 W · 49 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe28c…ffb3backed Over 3.5 | 2c | 600$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +89.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa981…ab19backed Over 3.5 | 2c | 600$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Under 3.5 | 43c | 600$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under 3.5 | 40c | 558.33$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98bd…8a55backed Over 3.5 | 60c | 558.33$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | -9.5wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under 3.5 | 42c | 332.47$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.83 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Under 3.5 | 45c | 300$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 1,031 | 50.3%519 W · 512 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under 3.5 | 43c | 300$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.95 | 1,541 | 49.2%758 W · 783 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Over 3.5 | 55c | 290$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.5 | 898 | 50.1%450 W · 448 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Over 3.5 | 14c | 209.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 1,379 | 16.4%226 W · 1,153 L | -108.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f64…3633backed Under 3.5 | 43c | 93$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.01 | 992 | 49.4%490 W · 502 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Under 3.5 | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 444 | 42.3%188 W · 256 L | +14.5wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9b…8aedbacked Over 3.5 | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…6b85backed Over 3.5 | 57c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 1,103 | 52.9%583 W · 520 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee5a…9f70backed Under 3.5 | 43c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 356 | 41.3%147 W · 209 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under 3.5 | 44c | 32.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e59…a02cbacked Under 3.5 | 50c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2930…4cf8backed Over 3.5 | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 126 | 31%39 W · 87 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jan-Lennard Struff vs. Daniil Medvedev: Total Sets O/U 3.5this page
- Set 1 Winner: Struff vs MedvedevStruff won
- Set 2 Winner: Struff vs MedvedevStruff won
- Set 3 Winner: Struff vs MedvedevStruff won
- Set Handicap: Medvedev (-1.5) vs Struff (+1.5)Struff won
- Set Handicap: Medvedev (-2.5) vs Struff (+2.5)Struff won
- Struff vs. Medvedev: Match O/U 36.5Over won
- Struff vs. Medvedev: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Wimbledon ATP: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Daniil MedvedevJan-Lennard Struff won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.