Mls · resolved market
Los Angeles Galaxy vs. FC Dallas: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd857a12c5b960c9e674036144f7cba912b4b0631d4332a111194f59c40c15fda
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,623
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,837
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,623 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 7c | 6,372$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.76 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 4c | 5,345$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.82 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 42c | 1,906$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 190 | 44.7%85 W · 105 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 58c | 1,012$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…965abacked Over | 2c | 666.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 86 | 24.4%21 W · 65 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 5c | 553.79$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced4…5055backed Over | 10c | 499.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb9…dd8ebacked Under | 60c | 333.33$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.33 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 60cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 42c | 330.17$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.61 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91fe…c1c6backed Over | 7c | 280.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 382 | 46.1%176 W · 206 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Under | 58c | 215$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.3 | 200 | 43%86 W · 114 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 58c | 214.42$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.06 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Over | 5c | 204.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 196 | 42.9%84 W · 112 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked Over | 23c | 152.74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.24 | 146 | 52.1%76 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Over | 11c | 133$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 171 | 37.4%64 W · 107 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 41c | 110.73$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.4 | 394 | 35.8%141 W · 253 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Under | 58c | 84.72$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.58 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61c6…2e9fbacked Over | 28c | 68.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Under | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 444 | 47.3%210 W · 234 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Under | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 352 | 47.7%168 W · 184 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Under | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 366 | 46.7%171 W · 195 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 59c | 42.93$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x186a…559dbacked Under | 60c | 41.92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Over | 40c | 33.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf83b…167dbacked Under | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 59c | 29.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 734 | 38.1%280 W · 454 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae33…ba39backed Under | 59c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +127.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 68c | 15.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 443 | 50.6%224 W · 219 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb9…c170backed Under | 80c | 12.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 21 | 85.7%18 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 80cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Los Angeles Galaxy vs. FC Dallas: O/U 3.5this page
- Los Angeles Galaxy vs. FC Dallas: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Los Angeles Galaxy vs. FC Dallas: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Los Angeles Galaxy vs. FC Dallas: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Los Angeles Galaxy vs. FC Dallas: Los Angeles Galaxy O/U 1.5Under won
- Los Angeles Galaxy vs. FC Dallas: Los Angeles Galaxy O/U 2.5Under won
- Los Angeles Galaxy vs. FC Dallas: O/U 0.5Under won
- Los Angeles Galaxy vs. FC Dallas: O/U 1.5Under won
- Los Angeles Galaxy vs. FC Dallas: O/U 2.5Under won
- Los Angeles Galaxy vs. FC Dallas: O/U 4.5Under won
- Los Angeles Galaxy vs. FC Dallas: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: FC Dallas (-1.5)Los Angeles Galaxy won
- Spread: FC Dallas (-2.5)Los Angeles Galaxy won
- Spread: Los Angeles Galaxy (-1.5)FC Dallas won
- Spread: Los Angeles Galaxy (-2.5)FC Dallas won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.