Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on August 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd868e41fe5aae13dc4d804601eb9473297f0a92e2e49fbd5234c6b545a51ed92
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,744
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,165
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,744 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 60c | 815.64$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.12 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91f7…932cbacked Yes | 39c | 694.6$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.43 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…946fbacked Yes | 41c | 576.55$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 67c | 308.76$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.8 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 6c | 300.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 61c | 226.5$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.46 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 68c | 225$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.14 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 7c | 223.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 42c | 206.89$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.87 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 56c | 197.78$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.2 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 70c | 172.01$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.47 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 79c | 171.79$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.28 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 42c | 160$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.12 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7730…2aefbacked Yes | 44c | 151.59$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.7 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 41c | 150$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.92 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 36c | 149.61$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 68c | 146$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.09 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 65c | 139$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.11 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 36c | 125$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.88 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 65c | 118.93$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.29 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 38c | 117.54$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.89 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 72c | 115$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.7 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 37c | 101.55$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 38c | 89$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.48 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 64c | 80$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed Yes | 38c | 67.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 60c | 63.02$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae19…5cb0backed Yes | 35c | 59.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb335…aac1backed Yes | 34c | 59.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 95 | 38.9%37 W · 58 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 34c | 58.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 66c | 58.2$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4d…bb01backed No | 55c | 56.17$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.28 | 218 | 29.4%64 W · 154 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.26 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f1…eed4backed Yes | 41c | 48.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 67c | 48.48$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.08 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked Yes | 35c | 47.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked No | 62c | 46.15$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.54 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 32c | 44.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…a96dbacked Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 61c | 39.81$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…8792backed No | 66c | 39.41$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 180 | 45.6%82 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 37c | 33.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 32.7$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 39c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdae8…4736backed Yes | 45c | 31.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 62c | 29.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed No | 61c | 26.97$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 67c | 26.92$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 61c | 24.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…63a4backed No | 56c | 22.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 115 | 25.2%29 W · 86 L | -9.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 62c | 22.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x562b…f9febacked No | 61c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 59c | 18.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43be…d8bebacked No | 71c | 15.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 40 | 77.5%31 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on August 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on August 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on August 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.