Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on August 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa12970fd2d973d1b0d4598b1e6cf8cbb7032da424a9fec037f65bdb59d9b16c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,513
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,711
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,513 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 51c | 1,049$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.31 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 53c | 848.49$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.63 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…946fbacked Yes | 48c | 654.08$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.08 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc86d…2e76backed No | 55c | 579.99$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.03 | 48 | 16.7%8 W · 40 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dc…48fabacked Yes | 46c | 434.78$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.24 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | -10.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 77c | 418.26$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.46 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 36c | 409.21$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.88 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 49c | 326.8$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.52 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 42c | 323.97$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.9 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 56c | 307.61$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.37 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 43c | 213.68$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.77 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…ccccbacked Yes | 78c | 182.92$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.53 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +11.7wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 33c | 172.02$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.06 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 28c | 166.71$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.9 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 56c | 144.49$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.36 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 59c | 139$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.66 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 52c | 136.75$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.11 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3427…2ff7backed No | 52c | 125.22$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.98 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked Yes | 39c | 122.95$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.26 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x634d…4d02backed Yes | 46c | 118.86$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.37 | 127 | 47.2%60 W · 67 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 53c | 114.89$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.89 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 58c | 111.29$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.55 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 43c | 106.27$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.62 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 52c | 102.44$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.27 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…ed72backed Yes | 43c | 98$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.01 | 138 | 34.8%48 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 54c | 92.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.34 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 46c | 84.22$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.49 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 32c | 81.61$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 42c | 73.19$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.21 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 64c | 72.02$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.82 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 44c | 64.16$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.93 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 40c | 63.62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 17c | 62.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 33c | 61.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 40c | 56.39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.89 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 45c | 55.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.26 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 42c | 55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71d3…e130backed No | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 36c | 53.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 56c | 53.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.12 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 42c | 52.03$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.14 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34c1…1bb0backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +10.6wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | -14.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…eb6ebacked Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65f1…eed4backed Yes | 44c | 45.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.22 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 42c | 44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.52 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 55c | 43.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 47c | 42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 58c | 41.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 47c | 40.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.65 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 37c | 40.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…a96dbacked Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked No | 53c | 38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 41c | 37.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 56c | 34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 63c | 31.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 58c | 31.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 57c | 31.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10fb…4651backed No | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 37c | 28.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 57c | 28.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x556b…4e33backed No | 57c | 28.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9a…0f66backed Yes | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 57c | 23.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 55c | 22.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…8792backed No | 53c | 20.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 180 | 45.6%82 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d17…32d8backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 136 | 55.1%75 W · 61 L | -13.4wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd31d…f8bfbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 53c | 19.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6481…32d0backed Yes | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -4.9wins | -0.35per pick | 71cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on August 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on August 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.