Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. VfL Wolfsburg end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd87290c9bcf6f6334e905295dd6975c44d4315f660efb72ab8f2028e96fc783b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,458
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,125
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,458 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 79c | 5,344$4,210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,134.01 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 20c | 3,489$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707.7 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 72c | 1,811$1,302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.73 | 144 | 47.9%69 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 32c | 821.34$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.41 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7104…8cffbacked Yes | 7c | 728.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 28c | 700$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 71c | 413.79$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 29c | 413.79$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | +9.8wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1c70…b25ebacked No | 61c | 400$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 241 | 32%77 W · 164 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3f…894ebacked Yes | 26c | 326.92$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Yes | 28c | 300.1$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.03 | 228 | 29.4%67 W · 161 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 35c | 250$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…6952backed Yes | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…e405backed Yes | 29c | 190$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.1 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 21c | 185$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.66 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0180…b8cdbacked Yes | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6271…4ac6backed Yes | 18c | 155.41$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7de…4d6dbacked Yes | 47c | 150$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd094…271bbacked Yes | 29c | 143.97$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.75 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…c20dbacked Yes | 29c | 137.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbce1…5555backed Yes | 29c | 137.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d2…a62dbacked Yes | 29c | 120.69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 80c | 112$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfccd…b1afbacked Yes | 20c | 112$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8f…d581backed Yes | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb03…5ae4backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b35…12b3backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf825…b9ffbacked Yes | 31c | 97.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed No | 71c | 97.79$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.36 | 110 | 56.4%62 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23d4…5607backed Yes | 26c | 96.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 71c | 93.28$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.05 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551a…4ee7backed Yes | 27c | 82.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fd…9499backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…8593backed Yes | 29c | 69.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 26.5%13 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe9…9c50backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 264 | 33.3%88 W · 176 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 214 | 50%107 W · 107 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddd7…1596backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 258 | 55.4%143 W · 115 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93b5…42e7backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +6.6wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Yes | 21c | 47.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 79c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes | 29c | 37.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb8…7471backed Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 52c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 282 | 41.5%117 W · 165 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed No | 45c | 34.87$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | +6.9wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | +193.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc33a…671fbacked Yes | 55c | 34.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Yes | 37c | 28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Yes | 49c | 26.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 119 | 31.1%37 W · 82 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9158…ba55backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 121 | 65.3%79 W · 42 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. VfL Wolfsburg end in a draw?this page
- Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-01-24?Yes won
- Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-01-24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.