MLB · resolved market
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd87fdf1311dc02a993b81fe1ad38b0fd9cd31f3c35a116d6d7f034c773851c36
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Los Angeles Dodgersof Los Angeles Dodgers, Athletics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,583
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,947
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,583 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 42c | 41,452$17,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,042.1 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e0…ad50backed Athletics | 58c | 41,442$24,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,036.31 | 311 | 49.2%153 W · 158 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 52c | 5,362$2,787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,575.38 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 56c | 4,464$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,964.38 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Athletics | 44c | 4,454$1,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,959.93 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Athletics | 48c | 3,306$1,587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,586.79 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2805…76edbacked Athletics | 51c | 2,030$1,035 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,035.21 | 212 | 42%89 W · 123 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Athletics | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 69c | 826.09$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.09 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe86e…e26ebacked Athletics | 4c | 800$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 42c | 757$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.06 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Athletics | 29c | 507.45$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.22 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Athletics | 65c | 331.76$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.53 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.1 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a0…c52bbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.1 | 231 | 45.5%105 W · 126 L | -8.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Athletics | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 45c | 116.17$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.03 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 31c | 112.9$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.9 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Athletics | 55c | 85.07$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.15 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 79c | 84.51$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.45 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd13c…98a7backed Athletics | 65c | 74.37$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.24 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -11.1wins | -0.28per pick | 59cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xc98b…c6f3backed Athletics | 66c | 62.93$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.53 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Athletics | 58c | 59.21$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.34 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Athletics | 58c | 53.71$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…b01fbacked Athletics | 23c | 52.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ab…faadbacked Athletics | 49c | 40.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | +5.7wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 41c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf060…02debacked Athletics | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 41c | 32.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 49c | 26.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Athletics | 59c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 42c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…9892backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 52c | 20.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | -8.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Athletics | 58c | 19.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)this page
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. AthleticsLos Angeles Dodgers won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-5.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. AthleticsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.