MLB · resolved market
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x562cda6bba6eb35f9b3738c3f4e319bb7d584d5534a5a241260db2912e7c25a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,145
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,141
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,145 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Under | 50c | 11,925$5,962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,962.45 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Over | 50c | 5,980$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,979.95 | 203 | 50.7%103 W · 100 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Under | 49c | 5,100$2,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,498.99 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 50c | 4,394$2,197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,197 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 51c | 2,842$1,449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,392.62 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 51c | 2,021$1,026 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$995.34 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Under | 49c | 2,013$986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$986.37 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 51c | 1,376$699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$677.28 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 66c | 1,316$869 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.23 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 36c | 1,054$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.22 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6f…014ebacked Under | 49c | 1,021$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.29 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Under | 51c | 980.77$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.8 | 360 | 48.6%175 W · 185 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 64c | 660.65$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.75 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 32c | 638.24$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.2 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Under | 50c | 527.1$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.55 | 891 | 53.5%477 W · 414 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 50c | 487.92$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.65 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Over | 50c | 473.69$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.85 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Over | 51c | 447.75$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.4 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 49c | 434.85$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.08 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47da…b99fbacked Over | 51c | 399.45$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.73 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x985c…e5d2backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 544 | 55.1%300 W · 244 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 51c | 190.4$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.77 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25c1…7e8ebacked Over | 51c | 153.16$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.05 | 196 | 54.1%106 W · 90 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 46c | 150$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 16c | 136.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 70c | 118$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.52 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 49c | 109.67$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.93 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Over | 51c | 91.73$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.95 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 50c | 88.02$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6b…e0f3backed Under | 46c | 86.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.22 | 172 | 53.5%92 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Over | 51c | 65$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.85 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.8 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa46b…846dbacked Under | 50c | 49.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4666…3a55backed Over | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 34c | 48.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 49c | 47.69$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 68c | 45.07$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x536e…4fd5backed Under | 50c | 39.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 187 | 42.8%80 W · 107 L | -16.0wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 51c | 39.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ab…faadbacked Over | 54c | 37.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.09 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | +5.7wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x409d…8f47backed Under | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa402…d14bbacked Over | 51c | 24.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 221 | 51.6%114 W · 107 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08b5…359dbacked Over | 51c | 22.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…0f4cbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6707…d4d8backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…cd0bbacked Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf67d…2de1backed Under | 57c | 18.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed Over | 75c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 244 | 48.8%119 W · 125 L | -14.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5this page
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. AthleticsLos Angeles Dodgers won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-5.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. AthleticsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.