Tweets · resolved market
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd91fffc6fcfc0100b9187579b979994b640629fb781205e96b1c75b5114f4b46
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,665
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,912
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,665 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf257…1950backed No | 6c | 4,147$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.1 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked No | 4c | 3,378$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.38 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 78c | 449.2$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.65 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a7b8backed Yes | 70c | 250.84$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.4 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 19c | 171.72$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.63 | 169 | 45%76 W · 93 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 17c | 167$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.61 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 18c | 157.94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 88 | 31.8%28 W · 60 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2142…6b8cbacked Yes | 69c | 150$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…04cebacked Yes | 57c | 149.99$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.11 | 119 | 32.8%39 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 24c | 145.66$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.06 | 221 | 60.2%133 W · 88 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 15c | 129$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfed9…6510backed Yes | 79c | 126.13$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.13 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4616…a910backed No | 75c | 121.32$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.99 | 336 | 70.2%236 W · 100 L | +22.5wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbba…e651backed Yes | 70c | 120$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 55c | 108.54$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.79 | 105 | 56.2%59 W · 46 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 10c | 103.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 154 | 55.2%85 W · 69 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 25c | 92.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…fd70backed No | 21c | 90.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 14c | 89.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 276 | 47.8%132 W · 144 L | +10.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 89.11$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.67 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x191e…ef6bbacked Yes | 18c | 73.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.58 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +8.2wins | +0.19per pick | 40cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 42c | 68$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.77 | 241 | 55.6%134 W · 107 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacb9…0754backed Yes | 79c | 68$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 96 | 36.5%35 W · 61 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 41c | 61.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.34 | 210 | 63.3%133 W · 77 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.2 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8673…4025backed Yes | 20c | 52.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.95 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +4.9wins | +0.18per pick | 41cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 309 | 55%170 W · 139 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeffd…5aa6backed Yes | 75c | 34.31$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 99 | 24.2%24 W · 75 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -29%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x864f…3ae7backed Yes | 75c | 33.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -4.2wins | -0.38per pick | 47cpaid | -87.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 77c | 32.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 101 | 46.5%47 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 66c | 32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 73c | 27.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf77…5a20backed No | 60c | 25.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04e3…69d1backed Yes | 77c | 24.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 76c | 23.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.73 | 116 | 43.1%50 W · 66 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 320 | 16.6%53 W · 267 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56d3…e307backed Yes | 79c | 15.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 78c | 14.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.24 | 126 | 46%58 W · 68 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?this page
- Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?No won
- Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.